Countrywide southwest monsoon deficit increased from 35% to 43%; the northward advance of the winds was stopped near Mumbai; Both US NOAA and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are expecting a moderate to strong El Niรฑo this year. El Niรฑo suppresses the vertical air movement needed to form rain clouds, while a warming Pacific Ocean weakens the trade winds that bring moisture to the subcontinent. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is also in an unfavorable phase and the Indian Ocean Dipole cannot currently serve as a buffer. Moreover, while northwest India is receiving 5% more rainfall than normal, central India and northeast are facing deficits of 63% and 43% respectively. But since two-thirds of the seasonโs precipitation historically falls in July and August, the monsoon may still recover and save the season. With reservoir capacity at 30.4%, down from 25.1% in previous El Niรฑo years, there is no cause for alarm yet. However, the implications for agriculture are more concerning. The Ministry of Agriculture has already prioritized 111 of the 315 vulnerable districts based on their irrigation coverage. Extreme heat reduces agricultural productivity. Intense heat and lack of rain have raised concerns about the cardamom crop in Idukki, a fate that does not bode ill for other plantation crops in the Western Ghats.
Both the planting window for rice, pulses and oilseeds in Kharif and fertilizer availability may come under pressure, the latter due to Chinese export restrictions and tensions in West Asia, raising risks of lower soil moisture and higher production stress. Food retail inflation was 4.2% in April; further shortages will particularly threaten vegetables and pulses, complicating monetary policy. The fundamental problem is how India has built its rural economy on the assumption of reliable rainfall delivery. No adaptation strategy can keep ahead of runaway warming indefinitely, so limiting future warming must mean reducing the impact. Ideal sustainability strategies are to move from a rain-centric to a water-centric organization, reduce dependence on water-intensive crops, and increase sustainability. The ways to implement the first two have already been outlined. In the latter case, while existing Department of Agriculture contingency plans reflect the need for controlled planting windows and alternative seed varieties, the key variable remains implementation at scale. Secondly, the government should consider setting up a new body to coordinate inter-state water use and crop changes based on enhanced El Niรฑo forecasts, eliminating crop management that is currently fragmented between the agriculture and Jal Shakti ministries and the IMD.
Published โ June 25, 2026 12:10 pm EST.