Several authors
Football is a game of failure, especially this summer.
In each game of the 2026 World Cup, each team had approximately 80 possessions of the ball. And each team scored about 1.5 goals per game. In other words, these teams cannot score goals using 98% of their possession.
These teams only take about 12 shots per game, so 85% of possessions donโt result in shots on goal. And even when they do, 88% of the time those shots are not goals.
But we all put up with constant futility because behind all those hopeless statistics lies a likely benefit, right? Right?
Yeah, um, not really.
The biggest World Cup in history brings with it an even greater avalanche of failures. Of the 48 teams trying to win the World Cup this summer, 47 (98%) will fail. Add up all the World Cups this century, and by the end of this summer, 240 different groups of players will have attempted to win the World Cup, and 233 will have failed.
Editorโs Choice
2 Related
Of course, not all failures are created equal. Injuries happen, referees make mistakes, arbitrary boundaries and random demographic patterns determine lineups, socio-economic factors take precedence over tactics, and the ball keeps bouncing.
So from now until the end of the tournament, weโll be ranking the 47 upsets as we continually update this page, with the teams last eliminated first, based on a combination of pre-tournament expectations, performance during the tournament, and, frankly, anything else worth considering.
Grading will be on the traditional scale of A to F. Yes, you can receive an A for failing or an A for failing. I canโt think of a sentence that sums up the World Cup better than this.
All figures are taken from Futi or Stats Perform statistics app unless otherwise stated. All forecasts shown are based on Michael Keighleyโs PADDLIN model.
How they were eliminated: Last place in group G
Final grade: C
They entered the tournament as the bottom-ranked team in their group, taking on Iran and Egypt before losing to Belgium. This general framework โ expect nothing from Belgium, be competitive against the other two โ would be a realistic goal for the New Zealanders. They gave themselves a chance to let the rebounds go their way, and then the rebounds went wrong.
The big disappointment is that they led twice against Iran and also opened the scoring against Egypt. So, the wait continues for their first World Cup victory.
How they were eliminated: Last place in group H
Final grade: D-
All Saudi Arabia had to do to reach the round of 16 was beat a team from a country of 530,000 people. Instead, despite the match ending goalless, they were dominated by a team from a country of 530,000 people.
The larger the circle, the higher the expected goal chance value:
At the time of elimination, their total number of shots (17) was the fewest for a team that had played all three group stage games. This linked them with Qatar hosting the 2022 World Cup. Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 FIFA World Cup.
How they were eliminated: Third place in group H
Final grade: F
After his team lost 5-1 to the United States in a friendly last November, Uruguay coach Marcelo Bielsa diagnosed his team: โIโm toxic. Being around me makes people feel worse.โ
After his side lost 1-0 to Spain and sealed their exit from this summerโs World Cup, Bielsa summed up his two-year tenure as Uruguay coach: โI donโt need to say any more about our performance at the World Cup. If you ask how they will remember me, they will remember me as leaving nothing behind.โ
I think maybe itโs time to retire? Or start writing existentialist poetry? Uruguayโs only real moves in this tournament were โSMASHโ or โSMASH HARDERโ. If not for the terrible mistakes of veteran goalkeeper Fernando Muslera, they would have easily qualified for the playoffs, but this team simply wasnโt having it.
Losing 1-0 to Spain in the 42nd minute of the final, they made two all-out shots. In my ranking and in Kayleighโs ranking they were in 13th place before the start of the tournament. This is the โbestโ team to miss the playoffs.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group I
Final score: WITH-
It was great to see Iraq return to the World Cup for the first time in 40 years, but they were doomed from the start. Before the tournament, I considered France to be the best team in the tournament, Norway ninth and Senegal 11th. This would be a rough knockout round result; this is an impossible group stage schedule. Thatโs not to say that being down 12 to one is a success, but they didnโt have the luck they needed to make the playoffs.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group E
Final score: B
If your country only has 150,000 people, shouldnโt you get an A just for qualifying for the World Cup? Well, 25 of the teamโs 26 players were born in the Netherlands, so thatโs not true. enough True, this summer 0.03% of the islandโs male population played for the national team.
But itโs also true that a 37-year-old dude who plays in the United Soccer League below MLS โ set a record for saves in a 90-minute World Cup match. The larger the dot, the higher the expected goals chance:
Given the placement of these 15 shots, we expect the average goalie to allow 2.27 goals. Room, of course, kept a clean sheet against starters Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea. Up until the final whistle against Ivory Coast, Curacao somehow still had a chance to reach the round of 16.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group A
Final score: D-
They had standard plays โ and almost nothing else.
All of their goals were scored from set pieces, 18 of 34 shots were scored from set pieces, and 1.38 of 2.37 expected goals were scored from set pieces. Itโs a fine balance for one of the rookies without top-tier talent on a team trying to take every advantage it can. But most of the Czech Republicโs starting lineup plays in Europeโs top league.
This is the team that needs to get past the round of 16 and come within striking distance of an upset win to advance to the round of 16. Instead, the Czech Republic finished last in one of the weakest groups in World Cup history.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group B.
Final score: F
They entered the tournament as the 95th-ranked team in Elo ratings, the lowest-ranked team in World Cup history. And Qatar left the tournament in 99th place.
Yes, they managed to draw with Switzerland, but this is the worst team I have ever seen in this tournament. Qatar is terrible in everything, but especially in defense: 10 goals conceded, 72 shots on goal, 160 missed touches in the penalty area.
Qatar has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to secure the rights to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup. They may have to double that amount if they want to have a competent national team.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in group L
Final score: WITH-
They gave us two of the most boring first halves of the World Cup, and their first two matches totaled just 33 shots โ the fewest shots of any team after two rounds. Did that almost work too?
Panama had 38 touches in the opposition penalty area and conceded just 29 against Ghana and Croatia, and I think it was smart of them to drag their games into the mud with low-events and random finishing. They lacked the attacking talent to put the ball in the goal.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group J
Final score: C+
They entered the tournament as the projected 38th-ranked team. Then they lost to Austria and Algeria, were eliminated after two matches, and their ratingโฆ remained the same. Jordan scored in both matches to tie the game with 15 minutes remaining in each.
They also left a very sweet note โ and real sweets โ in the dressing room after the Algeria game. I make the rules here: I give them cakes.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group F.
Final score: F
They lost the first game 5โ1, sacked their manager (Sabri Lamouchi), hired a new guy (Hervรฉ Renard) who didnโt know the players, and then lost the next game 4โ0. Yes, and all this happened before they played the best team in their group โ the Netherlands.
This is not to say that Tunisia are some new, lucky team that only qualified because of the expanded field. No, Tunisia won matches in each of the previous two World Cups! And they qualified for six of the last eight tournaments! Guys, act like youโve been there before!
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group D
Final score: F
According to manager Vincenzo Montella: โItโs not every time that the team that plays better wins. This is the sport we play. This is football.โ Heโs absolutely right โ unless heโs talking about his team.
The Turks failed to score in their first two matches, but they lost early to two supposedly better teams and then attempted 27 shots from 25 yards and beyond โ six more than any team has made in their first two matches since 2014.
A team that includes Juventusโ Kenan Yildiz and Real Madridโs Arda Guler, two of the best young creators in the world, should have a better comeback plan than this.
How they were eliminated: Finished last in Group C
Final score: WITH-
Haiti entered the tournament with just a 15% chance of qualifying from the group, in a tournament where two-thirds of teams qualify for the knockout stages. They played well in the first match against Scotland โ controlling 61% of possession in the final third and outshooting their opponents 15-9 โ but were unable to turn that control into a goal and lost 1-0.
Of course they gave Brazil too much space in the next match and lost 3-0, but Iโm not sure better tactics would have made much of a difference. They were eliminated before scoring.