Home GermanyThose who have already been tested, those who have already been eliminated, and those who count – Observer
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Those who have already been tested, those who have already been eliminated, and those who count – Observer

by OmarAli
Those who have already been tested, those who have already been eliminated, and those who count - Observer

The final round of the group stage of the 2026 World Cup starts this Wednesday, which means that The first decisions of the competition will also be completely closed. At 20:00, Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Qatar complete Group A, followed by Brazil, Morocco, Haiti and Scotland with Group C at 23:00 before South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic and Mexico in Group A at dawn.

But there are already qualifications and exceptions โ€“ and all because FIFA changed the rules. At this World Cup, unlike what has happened so far, the first criterion for tiebreaking within groups is direct opposition, and not goal difference. One however what does he do Haiti, Tรผrkiye, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama, who lost in the first two rounds and have zero points are already eliminated from the World Cup even if they win the third game, since they will always be behind the team that ends up with the same number of points.

But there are exceptions. Senegal, Iraq and Uzbekistan They also lost the first two games and have no points, but they still have a small chance of reaching the 1/8 finals: after all, the opponent in the last round is exactly the opponent with whom they can still compete for one of the eight places in the best third-placed teams. However, in the case of the Uzbeks, the situation is almost theoretical, since the five goals conceded by Portugal and the eight conceded by Colombia make classification almost impossible even in the event of a victory over DR Congo next Saturday.

On the other side of the fence, all seven teams that won the first two games and collected six points are already mathematically qualified: Mexico, USA, Germany, France, Norway, Argentina and Colombia. The Mexicans, North Americans, Germans and Argentines have already secured the top spots in their groups given the advantage in potential head-to-head matchups, the French and Norwegians meet in the final round to determine classification, with a draw in favor of the former, and the Colombians cannot lose to Portugal and win Group K. A win over Colombia on Saturday will see the national team take first place in the group.

World Cup 2026

And there are those who are almost qualified, but not yet qualified. With the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams and the inclusion of a new round, the round of 32, eight of the 12 third-place teams also advance to the next stage. According to Optaโ€™s forecasts, all teams that currently have four points after two rounds have only a 0.2% chance of failure. This group, in addition to Portugal, includes Canada, Switzerland, Brazil, Morocco, the Netherlands, Japan, Egypt, Spain, England and Ghana.

Looking at more specific cases and again according to statistics compiled by Opta, Carlos Queirozโ€™s Ghana are the team with four points and most likely to be eliminated as they face Luka Modricโ€™s Croatia in the final round. The Czech Republic, Ecuador and Bosnia are at risk, as they have only one point from two rounds, and something similar is happening with Belgium, which has two points from two games. Regarding Cape Verde, The big surprise of the 2026 World Cup, which has two points, has a 69.79% classification probability, with the third Group H game against Saudi Arabia scheduled for the early hours of Saturday (1am).

  • Mexico (1st place in Group A)
  • USA (1st place in group D)
  • Germany (1st place in Group E)
  • France (Group I)
  • Norway (Group I)
  • Argentina (1st place in Group J)
  • Colombia (Group K)
  • Haiti (Group C)
  • Turkiye (Group D)
  • Tunisia (Group F)
  • Jordan (Group J)
  • Panama (Group L)
  • Canada (Group B)
  • Switzerland (Group B)
  • Brazil (Group C)
  • Morocco (Group C)
  • Netherlands (Group F)
  • Japan (Group F)
  • Egypt (Group G)
  • Spain (Group H)
  • Portugal (Group K)
  • England (Group L)
  • Pobeda (Group L)
  • Senegal (Group I)
  • Iraq (Group I)
  • Uzbekistan (Group K)

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