Tips for today’s Wimbledon: Monday, July 6th.
1.5 points Grigor Dimitrov (-3.5) will beat Arthur Fery taking into account the playing handicap at 10/11 (BOYLE Sports)
Flavio Cobolli with 1 point will defeat Alex de Minaur with a score of 3/1 (overall)
0.5 points Taylor Fritz beats Alexander Bublik 3-0 at 11/4 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Bookmaker Betfair | Free bets
Alex de Minaur v Flavio Cobolli
Cobolli led this column to victory in the final round, defeating Karen Khachanov.
He was only 13/10 on Saturday, but is now 3/1, which I think is too high.
I noted the other day that Khachanov has never beaten a top-20 player at Wimbledon, and the same applies to De Minaur’s best ranking win, which came eight years ago when he defeated world number 29 Marco Cecchinato, a clay specialist. He’s just 3-5 against the SW19 top 50.
Cobolli’s victory over 19th-seeded Khachanov extended his record at the tournament to an impressive 8-2 – his run to the last eight here 12 months ago means he has played in as many Wimbledon quarter-finals as his opponent.
While De Minaur is known for his all-day running ability and ability to find the ball, here he faces a player with power above the ground, capable of punching holes in that famous defence.
And as he showed at the recent French Open, where he reached the final, the Italian has a serve that isn’t always given the respect it deserves.
De Minaur wasn’t at his best when he handed the set to Zack Svaida last time out, and while he’s more settled in the long run on this surface, Cobolli’s recent improvement tells me it’s misjudged.
Backing Cobolli at the playing handicap, where he gets a starting odds of 5.5, looks like a solid play, but I’m willing to risk him pulling off an upset given the inflated odds.
Grigor Dimitrov v Arthur Fery
I’m surprised Dimitrov isn’t shorter here.
A switch to grass cured his ailments in 2026 and he looked in fine form over the last two rounds, dismissing Jakub Mensik and Matteo Berrettini.
The former semi-finalist has real flair on the grass and while Fery outdid himself with his strong performances in week one, I suspect his time is up.
The Briton will be playing his first match on Center Court, adding to the nervousness surrounding the event, and another first for him will be recovering from a match lasting more than four-and-a-half hours.
That’s how long it took him to pass Ziza Bergs on Saturday, and five due to his lack of experience in this matter. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw that reflected in his fitness against Dimitrov.
For me, the bet here is to back the favorite to cover the -3.5 game handicap.
I can see him dominating this one, and even if Fery is competitive early on, the possibility of him disappearing could serve this bet well.
Taylor Fritz v Alexander Bublik
The two big servers must organize a high-scoring penalty shootout on the first court.
Fritz starts as 1/2 favorite, which, despite the head-to-head score of 4-4, seems fair enough.
The American has actually won four of the last five meetings, two of which were played on grass. Remarkably, both matches were won in straight sets, with Fritz winning 95% of his serves in these matches and 33% of his return games.
Fritz’s last match saw him win 6-4 6-4 in Stuttgart just a few weeks ago.
Given these figures, a 3-0 win at 11/4 looks tempting.
Bublik has racked up aces – 91 so far in SW19 – but recent matches with Fritz show he’s struggling to make the same breakthrough. In these matches on grass, he scored only 11 goals.
And the second serve proved to be an even bigger problem: it gave Bublik just 31% of his points in Stuttgart and just 35% in Eastbourne in 2022.
I am always cautious when betting on grass, as it is not difficult to make a mistake.
When I started writing this, I saw that three of the last six meetings had a first-set tiebreaker – here that’s a shot of 13/8. This shows how easy it is to solve a set with a few points.
However, given the stats and odds, I’ll have a small bet of 11/4.
Bublik is a player whose head can drop when things aren’t going well, and if Fritz can get ahead early on, it could well happen again given his recent record in this match.
Posted 05/07/2026 at 16:42 BST
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