Quebec’s population is set to shrink slightly in the coming years, but the housing crisis shows no signs of going away.
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After increasing by 500,000 people over the past four years, Quebec’s population is projected to shrink by about 50,000 by 2029, according to data released Thursday by the Institute of Statistics of Quebec.
The expected reduction in temporary immigration is a major factor in the expected decline in the number of Quebec residents.
The picture of the situation is seen more as a stabilization of the population rather than a significant reduction.
“This is in line with what we announced last year. The general trends for Quebec have continued, particularly because in terms of fertility the situation has not changed much since last year. The immigration target remains the same as announced last year,” explained Frédéric Fleury-Payer, a demographer at the Institute of Statistics of Quebec, in an interview with LCN on Friday.
QMI Photo Agency, JOEL LEMAY
The Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Nord-du-Quebec and Centre-du-Quebec regions are projected to see population growth ranging from 9% to almost 14% by 2051.
In turn, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Bas-Saint-Laurent and Abitibi-Témiscaming are expected to record population declines over the next 25 years.
The same applies to Montreal, where a decline of 9.7% is expected by 2051. The suburbs of the metropolis, in turn, should see a slight increase in the number of residents.
Monteregie: +3%
Laval: +3.3%
Lanaudiere: +5%
Laurentians: +5.6%
“This is something we’ve been seeing for a long time, not just in Montreal, a little bit in the larger urban centers of North America, but even in Europe,” explains Frédéric Fleury-Payer.
Housing needs continue to grow
While the cost of rent appears to be pushing many people to flee Montreal, the metropolitan area’s population decline will not be accompanied by a stabilization of housing costs.
Thus, according to the Institute of Tourism of Quebec, despite a population decline of 0.6%, housing needs should increase by 0.7%.
“This is due to the aging population. So the older you are, the more likely you are to live alone or in shared housing, that is, in one room. So there is a kind of mechanical effect: more older people, therefore, more housing needed per resident,” emphasizes Mr. Fleury-Payer.
To see the full interview, watch the video above.