“Moana” may face some turbulence at the box office.
Tracking services estimate that the live-action version of the Disney animated musical will cost between $60 million and $65 million from 3,875 theaters in North America. These ticket sales barely exceed 2016’s initial figure of $56 million, not adjusted for inflation. However, some exhibitors and competitors are predicting an even softer start of around $40 million, which would be a disaster given that Moana has a massive $250 million production budget – and that doesn’t include the studio’s massive global marketing spend.
Overseas audiences could play a key role in the box office success of “Moana,” which is projected to earn between $70 million and $75 million upon its international debut.
However, domestically, Moana is considered one of the worst projects among Disney’s live-action remakes. It could join the company of 2019’s Dumbo ($45 million) and 2025’s Snow White ($42 million), both of which were box office failures due to huge production budgets. By comparison, the film adaptations of Lilo & Stitch, The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast debuted with budgets above $100 million each.
Moana hits theaters ten years after the original musical, which was set in the ocean, and just two years after the sequel, which became a billion-dollar hit. The first film ended with $680 million. Then, with extremely catchy songs like “How Far I’ll Go” and “You’re Welcome,” Moana exploded in popularity on Disney+ and remains one of the most-watched streaming titles of all time. The sequel was originally planned as a television series before Disney decided to adapt the project into a feature film. That decision proved to be a wise one: the sequel premiered on the eve of Thanksgiving to a staggering $225 million over five days (and $139 million over the traditional weekend) and went on to gross $1.059 billion worldwide.
Over the past decade, Disney’s various live-action film remakes have produced mixed results. Last year’s Lilo & Stitch crossed the $1 billion mark, a milestone that was especially lucrative for the studio since the film cost a relatively modest $100 million. Other billion-dollar earners include 2019’s Aladdin, 2017’s Beauty and the Beast and 2019’s The Lion King, while 2016’s The Jungle Book was pretty close with $967 million. Disney seems to be revisiting films from the 90s and early 2000s the most. The studio misfired by going too far into the vault, as in Dumbo (1941) and Snow White (1937). A remake of 2010’s Tangled is in the works, starring Kathryn Hahn as the villainous Mother Gothel.
Directed by Thomas Kail (Hamilton), Moana revolves around the strong-willed daughter of a village chief who is chosen by the ocean to bring prosperity back to her island. Newcomer Katherine Lagaaia plays Moana, and Dwayne Johnson reprises his role from the animated series as the tattooed demigod Maul, who helps the Polynesian heroine on her journey. Reviews have not been very favorable for the live-action film, which currently has a 33% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
This weekend also marks the release of Evil Dead: The Burn, which is expected to gross $15-20 million from 4,000 theaters. Production cost $20 million. The supernatural horror film is the sixth film in the Warner Bros. franchise. and New Line’s “Evil Dead,” which began with Sam Raimi’s 1981 low-budget thriller “Evil Dead” and most recently returned to the big screen with 2023’s “Evil Dead: Rising.” This film opened with $24 million and ended with $147 million worldwide. The seventh installment, Wrath of the Evil Dead, is already scheduled for 2028.
Elsewhere, A24 comedy The Invitation is hoping to gross $4 million to $5 million while expanding nationwide. The well-reviewed film, directed by Olivia Wilde, grossed $1.36 million after two weekends of limited release. The Invitation centers on a bickering married couple (Wilde and Seth Rogen) who throw a dinner party for their free-spirited upstairs neighbors (Penelope Cruz and Edward Norton).
The remaining films will fill out the box office charts, with last weekend’s champion, Universal’s “Minions & Monsters” expected to add $17 million to $22 million for its second film, and Disney’s “Toy Story 5” targeting $18 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend of release.
Meanwhile, theater owners are patiently waiting for two giants, Christopher Nolan’s Odyssey (July 17) and Spider-Man: New Day (July 31), to end the month with a bang.