WNBA Picks Today for Wednesday, July 15th

by OmarAli 2 days ago

2 days ago

WNBA selection

The Connecticut Sun helped us early yesterday, winning by three underdogs by 1.5 points (at the time we bet on them), but Toronto laid an absolute egg and scored just 63 points against the Mystics, who continue to haunt me whether I’m betting on them or fading. We have three games coming up on Wednesday with the Chicago Sky hosting the Seattle Storm at noon ET, followed by the Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks at 1 pm ET, and then the Indiana Fever hosting the Golden State Valkyries tonight at 8 pm ET. Here are TSI’s predictions for today’s games.

Chicago Sky (-2.5) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 171.5

Chicago is 1.5 points worse than their season average in their last three games and just 1-3 in their last four, but they are nine points better at home this season compared to their performance on the road. In their last three games, Seattle has been 7.5 points better than its season average and is 10 points worse on the road than at home. TSI projects Chicago -0.5 with a total of 169 for this game, but the regression numbers heavily point toward Chicago and Over. I’m going to play Chicago because I think the combination of regression coupled with home/road separation is enough of a blind spot that TSI hasn’t fully grasped what this game could look like.

Bet: Sky -2.5 (Play to -3.5)

Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) LA Sparks, O/U 182.5

Minnesota has been four points below its season average in its final three games, while Los Angeles has been 11 points better than its season average in its final three games, indicating that we could be in for a classic Lynx rout at Los Angeles’ expense. The Sparks were also about two points worse on the road than at home, while Minnesota was relatively consistent both at home and on the road. TSI is projecting the Lynx -12.5 with a total of 182, so the pregame numbers look about right, but the regression data combined with the home/road split shows it’s the Lynx and Under, so those are my guesses.

Indiana Fever (-2.5) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 168.5

Both teams have been beating their season averages of late, with the Fever by two points and the Valkyries by four points. Indiana has won four of its last five games and is 2.5 points better at home than on the road, while Golden State has won seven straight but is playing its fifth road game in 11 days. TSI is projecting Indiana -2 with a total score of 170, and while I don’t really want to get into the team here (Indiana’s worst by placement), I like the Over as the TSI and regression numbers do indicate the Valkyries’ dam will finally break, as their last three games have been 14.5 points lower than their season average, so I think this total is a bit low.

Bet: Over 168.5 (Play up to 169.5)

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