Vikram Subburaj, CEO Giottus.com
Bitcoin was trading around $62,450 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. It is down about 1.6% in the last 24 hours. Investors reduced risk ahead of US inflation data. Renewed uncertainty in the oil market also weighed on sentiment. Immediate support lies between $61,800 and $62,000, followed by the psychologically important $60,000 level. Resistance is seen around $63,500, with the stronger $64,000-$65,000 band likely to determine whether the recent recovery can extend.
Institutional demand remains inconsistent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $197.4 million during the July 6-10 trading week. This was followed by a net capital outflow of $239.2 million on July 13. This suggests that large investors are still taking a cautious approach to the rally rather than consistently reclaiming their positions.
Data within the network presents an equally mixed picture. The true market average for Bitcoin is around $76,600, and the short-term holder’s cost basis is around $72,200. This leaves the market below key break-even levels for investors. Realization of long-term holder losses recently accounted for 43% of total realized value, with losses peaking at approximately $280 million per day. Spot trading volume decreased by 21.5%. Active targeting activity also remains subdued.
Large-cap altcoins were generally weaker. Ethereum was trading around $1,784, down 1.1%. BNB was worth around $568, down 0.8%; XRP stood at around $1.07, down 1.1%. Solana shares fell 1.8% to $75.09; and TRON fell 2.3% to around $0.324.
Macro risk now takes center stage. The June US consumer price index will be released later on Tuesday, followed by producer price data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29. Futures markets pegged the likelihood of a quarter-point rate hike in July at about 43% following hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Christopher Waller. Rising oil prices, linked to renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, increase inflationary risk.
Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing short-term moves ahead of the inflation data. Staggered accumulation, conservative leverage and strict position sizing remain favored while Bitcoin trades between $62,000 support and $65,000 resistance.