Port Carl Matchett
Final setup and doubts with Wirtz
Germany started the tournament quite strongly, despite a setback in their last game against Ecuador. But while they were creative at times, they did not come across as a well-rounded team – they suffered heavily on the counter-attack and were long outmatched in intensity against Ivory Coast. Julian Nagelsmann isn’t particularly worried at the moment, he’s confident his team will go from strength to strength as the competition progresses, but you can’t go into a tournament at half throttle forever – and qualifying tournaments tend to punish mistakes.
One of the most surprising repeated criticisms fell on Florian Wirtz; While he certainly didn’t dominate games from start to finish, he played a key role in Germany’s dynamic attack and created the team’s most shot chances (8), tied for first place. Only three players have made more assists at the World Cup than their two in three games, and they have touches ahead of 98% of the tournament’s playmakers and wingers. His participation is not in doubt, but rather his decisive influence.
There is no doubt that he needs a big game to be considered one of the figures of the championship, but when it comes to Germany’s performance, Nagelsmann will feel there are others who will have to give more if his team is to go much further than the last 16, with a possible meeting with France just around the corner.
Above expectations or ready to surprise?
As for Paraguay, we can say that they have already achieved the goal of passing the group stage. Yes, they reached the quarter-finals in 2010 – but since then they have failed to qualify for three World Cups in a row, so victory over Turkey was a welcome return to the spotlight. Regardless, it’s hard to argue that they’ve shown enough to think they can pull off much of a blow in a draw like this.
They were overwhelmed by the United States and Australia stopped them – even in their win it was a quick hit and run, outshot 32 to 7, possession 78% to 22 and xG 2.2 to 0.3… but the goal that really mattered.
Recent episode
Germany beat Finland and the United States before the tournament and then moved into first place with an opening 7-1 win over Curacao. Since then they’ve had two reversed results, coming back at the last minute against Ivory Coast and then experiencing the opposite when they lost to Ecuador. Paraguay won, lost and drew in the group stage and lost to Morocco in the qualifying round.
Team news
Nico Schlotterbeck will miss the World Championships due to injury.
Omar Alderete is a serious doubt for Paraguay, Diego Gomez is suspended but Miguel Almiron returns after serving his sentence.
Key player
Jamal Musiala is yet to reach his best level, but with the much-changed Paraguayan formation his movement off the ball will be key. So far, he has completed 9 dribbles and won 25 duels, while also adding 21 touches in the box – all of which ranks in the top 5% of the tournament’s playmakers.
Probable Germany XI
Forecast
Germany must take a step forward with a convincing win – and raise the bar for the round of 16: Germany 3-1 Paraguay.
(IMAGO cover)
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This is a machine translation and may contain minor inaccuracies.