Burning air mass will rise from Spain
The increase will begin in the south and west and then reach most of the country. At an altitude of about 1500 meters above sea level, temperatures can reach 24–26°C, which is typical for an exceptionally warm air mass in France.
This rise will be supported by high pressure spreading into Western Europe, while a depression will persist in the Atlantic. Such a balance of forces could establish a flow from the south to the southwest, again playing the role of a “heat pump” from the Iberian Peninsula.
Up to 35-40°C from Tuesday to Thursday?
On the ground, temperatures will rise quickly Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures of 35°C can be significantly exceeded from southwestern to central regions, with peaks between 38 and 40°C depending on the exact intensity and trajectory of the warm air mass. The 30°C threshold can also be exceeded in the north.
At present, the differences between the models nevertheless remain significant. The duration of the episode, nighttime temperatures and the extent of the affected regions will determine whether it will be a simple heat peak or a new heat wave. Therefore, the term “heat wave” cannot be retained for now, even if the risk is now increasing.
Temperature rise © LKM
The heat will continue in early August
The situation deserves all the more close attention since the trends in early August retain a warm signal. If high pressure persists across the continent, this surge could continue or be quickly followed by a new episode. Conversely, more dynamic ocean flow would limit the duration and intensity of the heat.
Future updates will clarify this scenario. The main uncertainty concerns the ability of Atlantic air to spread over France in the face of a very warm air mass firmly established over Spain.
Drought, fires and health at risk
The new very warm sequence will quickly worsen surface drought and drying of vegetation. After several heatwaves and multiple fires since early summer, fire risk could once again become very high or even extreme in wind-prone regions. Heat and drought have already caused several large fires in France and Spain.
From a public health perspective, recurrence of episodes is an aggravating factor: organizations, housing and care services have little time to recover. France’s public health service has already noted a noticeable increase in ambulance calls in early May and again in June, with recent reports confirming the significant health impact of this summer’s heat waves.