Anthony Kaczmarek 07.18.2026 10:27 5 minutes 
Eat change in the air : Although the heat wave has retreated towards the Mediterranean, France will face the Atlantic Ridge regime for several dayswhich produces dry but often much more breathable weather in the northern half. In contrast, within 9 days there are signals of renewed rainfall with a decrease in the polar jet stream. : Should we believe it?
No changes until July 25-26?
Small changes expected in French skies by Friday 24 Julyand therefore usually not a drop of rain in most regions… The anticyclone has finally retreated over the Atlantic and will remain there, direction of flow north or northeast across the northern two-thirds of France. Time in general dry and sunnywith the exception of the northern part of the Seine, they are sometimes subject to a few harmless clouds coming from the North Sea.
The polar jet stream, highlighted in pink at the top of the image, may subside as early as Saturday, July 25, and head toward Western Europe.
However, in terms of temperature, what a difference! northern half will find breathing temperatureand in a sustainable manner. Instead, look at the forecast averages: 13 to 15°C in the morning, 25 to 28°C in the afternoon, in other words, nights can be a bit chilly at times with temperatures below 10°C in places, and summer days with heat without frills.
These values are clearly hidden regional differences : Between Hautes-de-France and Grand Est, maximum temperatures are unlikely to exceed 25°C and will sometimes be slightly below seasonal norms. On the other side, towards the Loire Land, coastal winds can raise the mercury to a high warming threshold of 30°C.. On the other hand, the southern half will not be subject to the same regime.
A cold drop will swirl all week off the coast of Portugalcombining the scorching air masses present in the Maghreb, Spain and Sardinia: on average in the south Between 31 and 32°C during the day and between 19 and 20°C at night, heat wave thresholds will need to be monitored again.. The southern regions from the Garonne to Occitanie and the Mediterranean could often exceed 35°C.
Rain and then another clog?
From Saturday 25 Julyaccording to the most recent maps of the European ECMWF model (also called CEP in French), the situation can change radically : polar jet streamthat which materializes the boundary between masses of cold air and masses of hot air and along which depressions slide and accelerate, could finally descend, strengthen and regain the direction of Western Europe..
After a break of several days near the NAO+ regime, a new anticyclonic blocking may occur at the very end of July (red bars).
Thanks to this new mode, comparable to NO+ modein which the pressure is low in Iceland and high towards the Azores, Cooler, more unsettling weather pattern could impact Francewith the exception of the Mediterranean regions protected by the Mistral and Tramontane. In fact, the flow will be oriented to the North-West.and France was directly influenced cool, humid aircaused by a depression spreading from Iceland to the British Isles.
Temperatures could then fall below seasonal norms for the first time since mid-June.during the period that is considered the hottest of the year (vacationers probably complain about this). Significant instability could plague France due to a series of rains and storms. sometimes intense.
More this damp and cool interlude might not last long.With the likelihood of a new anticyclonic blockage in Europe increases from Tuesday 28 JulyWith return of the sun and intense heataccording to the European model. Forecasts worth taking with you extreme caution, low reliability (60%) over 7 days. These are indices, not final forecasts…