One feature we will be watching closely over the next few days is a stalled front in the northern Gulf. The big question was, will it turn into something tropical?
While some long-range computer models suggest that an area of low pressure may develop along this boundary, it is important to remember that not every low pressure system in the Gulf becomes tropical.
A frozen front is essentially a dividing line between different air masses and is a natural place for showers and thunderstorms to develop repeatedly.
When these storms occur, computer models often try to create a center of low pressure, but this is often just a reflection of active weather and not necessarily the start of a tropical cyclone.
For a tropical system to develop, this low must separate from the front.
In other words, it must stop relying on temperature differences along the border and instead become a warm-core system, fed by the warmth and moisture of the Gulf waters.
It also requires thunderstorms to remain concentrated over one center for an extended period, low wind shear to keep storms from tearing apart, and a very moist atmosphere to continue forming.
Right now, the front is actually complicating this process because it is stretching the energy over a larger area instead of allowing it to compress into one organized circulation.
So, while we will continue to monitor the Gulf as we always do during hurricane season, the current setup favors a broad area of showers, thunderstorms and the potential for heavy rain rather than a well-organized tropical system.
This is a good reminder that just because the model is painting an area of low pressure in the Gulf does not mean there is a hurricane on the horizon.
Our job is to separate what the models suggest from what the atmosphere is actually capable of producing.
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