WIMBLEDON, England — Six weeks ago, it looked like Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic would meet in the French Open final.
With two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz out due to injury, the path to the men’s final seemed all but certain for Sinner and Djokovic, conveniently placed on opposite sides of the draw. It was a great opportunity for both of them. For Sinner, winning the title would mark the completion of a career Grand Slam and cap a dominant spring in which he won five Masters 1000-level tournaments. For Djokovic, it was a chance to set a record with 25 major titles.
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But, of course, none of the scenarios came true.
Sinner was stunned in the second round by Juan Manuel Cerundolo in one of the most shocking defeats in recent memory, while Djokovic was defeated in the third round the next day by Joao Fonseca, throwing the men’s draw into absolute chaos and leaving fans wondering what might have been.
With a few weeks to recover, both physically and mentally, both athletes arrived at Wimbledon hoping to focus on another big opportunity. With neither competing in any opening events on grass, it was unclear how they would fare at the All England Club, but those doubts have since subsided and now Sinner, the defending champion, and Djokovic, the seven-time champion, will meet on Friday in the semi-finals, with both clamoring to return to the final.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of their mandatory semi-final bout.
24-year-old Jannik Sinner will face 39-year-old Novak Djokovic on Friday at Wimbledon. AP Photo/Aaron Favila
The case is in favor of the sinner
For most of the spring, Sinner was virtually invincible. He was on a 30-match winning streak that spanned both hard-court and clay events and was the overwhelming favorite to win the French Open.
Even against Serundolo, it looked like he would get another win. But although he later tried to downplay the effects of the scorching heat, Sinner found himself powerless in the sun and at one point dropped 18 points in a row. During the break before Wimbledon, Sinner said he and his team began focusing on training in hot conditions and working on how to improve performance as temperatures rise.
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Although it was not as hot at the All England Club, 24-year-old Sinner showed no signs of fatigue or any serious physical ailments. In his first round match against Miomir Kecmanovic, he struggled at times and had a toenail problem that caused him to bleed through his sneakers, but ultimately found a way to win in five sets. He later explained that he felt nervous before and during the match as the defending champion.
And since then, Sinner has returned to his dominant form. He needed several tiebreakers but had yet to lose a set. Shintaro Mochizuki, his third-round opponent, said Sinner’s aura and the idea of playing against him on Center Court made it difficult even before the match began.
“I thought I was going to lose easily before I walked onto the court,” Mochizuki said.
In Tuesday’s quarterfinal match against Jan-Lennard Struff, the temperature was above 80 degrees on the mostly shadeless Court No. 1, but Sinner showed little sign of discomfort from the conditions. He was efficient and quick with his takedown, taking just over two and a half hours, and relying on his submission prowess and signature right hand.
There was a brief moment when it looked like Sinner might falter when faced with set point in the second set, but he stayed composed and fought back to win the game and ultimately force the tiebreaker.
“I felt like I was playing freely and had a chance,” Struff later explained. “I felt (as if) there was a good chance to win the set. But in the tiebreaker I only lose one point because of a backhand into the net. He was there and didn’t give me a chance to return. It was pretty hard.”
After exchanging serves in the third set, Sinner eventually pulled away with a break, denying Struff the chance to return to the game for a 7-5, 7-6(4), 6-3 victory.
Sinner, who called the conditions “warm but not crazy,” was pleased with how he felt.
“It was a very good game from me, so I’m very happy,” he said after the match.
Sinner now faces his toughest test of the tournament against Djokovic. He has a career head-to-head record of 6–5 and is one of only two players in history (along with Andy Roddick) to have played him five or more times and have a winning record against him. Sinner has also won five of her last six meetings, including the semi-finals at Wimbledon last year.
During that Center Court match, Sinner easily dispatched Djokovic, 15 years his senior, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, leaving Djokovic openly questioning whether he could compete with Sinner and Alcaraz to take the lead at the Grand Slam.
“I think the best-of-three, especially this year, has been a real test for me physically. The longer the tournament goes on, yes, the worse it gets. I get to the final stage, I’ve reached the semi-finals of every Grand Slam this year, but (then) I have to play Sinner or Alcaraz. These guys are fit, young (and) strong. I feel like I’m going into the match with a half-empty tank, (and) it’s just impossible to win a match like that.”
Before finding out who he would play in the semi-finals, Sinner said he knew it would be a tough battle but vowed to do his best.
“Anyway, I’m glad to be back in the semi-finals,” he said. “I’m happy to fight for every ball and we’ll see. There’s nothing more I can do, so… (Djokovic) has won this tournament so many times and he knows exactly how to approach it. I’m looking forward to it.”
Djokovic has won seven Wimbledon titles, most recently in 2022. Maja Smajkowska/AP
The case is in favor of Djokovic
Although last year’s loss to Sinner sparked speculation that his time in the sport was coming to an end, Djokovic told reporters at the time that he hoped to return to Wimbledon “at least one more time.”
And since then, he’s found a way – at least once – to beat his younger rivals at a major. Djokovic defeated Sinner 3–6, 6–3, 4–6, 6–4, 6–4 in the Australian Open semi-finals in January.
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The surface is different at Wimbledon, of course, and Djokovic noted that he is “fresh after months of break and preparation” in Melbourne, but he has already proven he can beat the best players in the most intense battles. The 39-year-old upset No.3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in a marathon thriller 7-6 (10), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (4) that lasted 5 hours 15 minutes – the longest match of his Wimbledon career. There were many tense moments – an apparent calf injury in the first set, a controversial decision to close the roof in the second set – but Djokovic never gave up.
“Moments like these are why I still play tennis,” Djokovic enthused on court after his match Tuesday night.
Taking a 2-1 set lead, Djokovic capitalized on a break in the fourth round before Auger-Aliassime fought back to force a tiebreak and then a decider. It remained unclear whether Djokovic had enough money to win. But as both stayed on serve and showed off their stamina with incredible rallies and the crowd seemed to hold their breath, it was decided by a 10-point tiebreaker. It was there that Djokovic reminded everyone to never count him out.
“I’ve seen a lot of Novak’s films over the years,” Auger-Aliassime, 25, later said. “I’ve analyzed a lot of his matches, whether here or at other Grand Slam tournaments. Even when he wasn’t playing his best, beating Roger (Federer) here in 2019. It’s just that in tiebreakers or in difficult moments you feel like he’s either serving well or forcing you to take an extra shot. He just keeps you in a position where you can’t attack him, but he neutralizes you until he makes a mistake.”
Sinner has yet to face a seeded opponent, but Djokovic has now faced two – he played 25th seed Arthur Rinderknech in the third round and two-time major finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round.
Djokovic is a +325 underdog against Sinner, which is the biggest odds Djokovic has had at Wimbledon since 2006. But with two full days between the quarter-finals and semi-finals, Djokovic showed promise when speaking to reporters.
“It’s a little different now (compared to Australia),” Djokovic said. “But nevertheless, for me this is another great, historic run at the Grand Slam tournaments. Honestly, that’s the most important thing. I’m still trying to prove to myself and others that I can compete with the best players in the world and beat them on the biggest stage. This is what I did in Australia. That’s what I did here.”
“Hopefully I can play a few more matches here in London.”
Sinner is the reigning Wimbledon champion and number one seed. Jeff Burke/Imagn Images
So who will win?
Logically speaking, Sinner has an advantage entering the match. Already having the advantage of youth, he will have more time to recover, with only his first round match going past the three-hour mark. And with Djokovic ruining his three-win mission at the Australian Open, Sinner will be even more motivated.
Also, of course, Sinner knows how to beat Djokovic. (See: Five of the last six meetings and last year’s Wimbledon result.)
But Djokovic, who called his quarter-final victory “one of the best matches” he has ever played at Wimbledon, was visibly invigorated on Tuesday night and encouraged by his ability to go on for so long against a much younger peer. He also showed that he can still beat Sinner at a major when the stakes are high.
Temperatures are expected to be around 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, which could prove particularly favorable for Djokovic. Although Sinner said he has worked hard to improve his performance in the heat, he has yet to face a top-level opponent in such conditions at this tournament. In a match that can come down to the smallest factors at key moments, that could be the difference.
Djokovic knows he doesn’t have many options at 25, and he’ll do it. All he may not miss this opportunity at his favorite tournament. Will this be enough? Let’s see.