Why is there a new heat wave in France?
The atmospheric configuration will again become very favorable for extreme heat. The anticyclone will establish itself over Central Europe, and the Atlantic depression will head towards the Azores. Between these two systems a strong south to southwest flow will develop over France. This south-southwest circulation will act like a true heat pump, delivering subtropical air masses directly from Morocco to France. After a still relatively mild start to the week, temperatures are expected to rise sharply from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Fourth Heat Wave in France: Key Points to Remember © Meteo Consult / La Chaine Meteo
The heat wave is now likely to cover most of the country
At this stage, the risk of meeting heat wave criteria is more than 70% over a wide area from the southwest to the center and central-east. The risk is significantly lower towards the English Channel and Mediterranean coasts.
Next week we’ll see a fourth heat wave © Meteo Consult / La Chaine Meteo
This episode will come after several wonderful periods of heat since late spring. The July heat wave also affected the entire population of France at one time or another: between July 10 and July 15, up to 37 departments were simultaneously in the red level.
When will this fourth heat wave begin?
The heat wave will begin on Tuesday as the national heat index (average of minimum and maximum temperatures across 30 cities) will top 23.4°C and reach 24.1°C. The increase will be dramatic between Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures rising from 24.1°C to 27.4°C.
On Tuesday 28 July, very hot weather will first reach the southwest with temperatures ranging from 34 to 36°C in the afternoon. Temperatures will also rise sharply in all central regions up to the Loire Valley, ranging from 31 to 34°C.
On Wednesday 29 July, very hot weather will spread across much of France, becoming scorching in many regions. Temperatures of 35°C will be reached south of the approximate Rennes-Paris-Strasbourg line: 37°C in Dijon and Clermont-Ferrand, 38°C in Orleans, Bourges and Toulouse.
Where will it be hottest?
3/4 of France should suffer from very hot weather. Maximum temperatures often reach 34–37°C with peaks between 37 and 40°C from the southwestern to central regions. Locally, temperatures may approach or reach 40°C, especially between the Aquitaine basin, the Val de Loire Center and Burgundy.
Next week we’ll see a fourth heat wave © Meteo Consult / La Chaine Meteo
Two areas should remain further apart: the English Channel coasts, tempered by sea influences and temperatures of 25 to 28°C, and regions close to the Mediterranean, where offshore winds typically limit highs to 31 to 34°C.
High altitude areas above 1500–1800 m will also benefit from more moderate temperatures and more breathable air.
How long could this new heat wave last?
This is the main uncertainty now. The heat is expected to remain very intense on Thursday 30 July and Friday 31 July, but the future is much more uncertain. Under certain scenarios, the rapid deterioration could spread across the country and gradually push the hottest air towards central Europe. Other scenarios call for an extension of very hot weather into next weekend and a stormy depression that will remain in the Atlantic Ocean.
Next week we’ll see a fourth heat wave © Meteo Consult / La Chaine Meteo
Therefore, it is now safe to say that a heat wave will affect France next week, particularly affecting the southwest to central-east axis. The intensity of this heat wave will be significant, with maximum temperatures approaching 40°C at times. It may be on the same order as the last heat wave, but a notch lower than June 2026. The duration of this heat wave has not yet been determined.