The El Niño climate phenomenon currently forming is expected to break “records” in intensity, a leading expert said on Tuesday, raising concerns about droughts, floods and other extreme events that accompany it.
Forecast models point to an “extreme” event, said Tim Stockdale, an El Niño expert at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an intergovernmental organization.
Stockdale said this time El Niño is unlike anything he has seen in more than three decades of studying the phenomenon.
“I think it’s absolutely fair to say that we’ve never had an El Niño forecast this strong,” he explained during the press conference, adding that all climate forecasting models are converging in that direction.
“I expect it to break records,” Mr. Stockdale told a news conference, adding, however, that “nothing is guaranteed.”
El Niño is a natural climate change that causes surface temperatures to rise in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing global changes in winds, air pressure and precipitation patterns.
This usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months.
Combined with human-caused climate change, the latest El Niño helped make 2023 the second warmest year on record and 2024 the hottest year on record.
This weather phenomenon can also cause droughts in some parts of the world and floods in others.
On Friday, the UN had already warned of a rapid intensification of the ongoing El Niño, which is expected to reach “high intensity” between July and September (level 3 of 4), increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events around the world.