England are preparing for the match against the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), hoping for victory. Opta estimates his chances of winning in regulation time at 73.9%. However, the tactics used by DRC manager Sebastien Desabre will make the task more difficult than this likelihood suggests.
Desabre has a clear strategy for dealing with the stronger teams in this tournament, which is different from how he approached the qualifiers. DRC used a four-man defense in 12 of their 13 qualifying games, retaining a back four in the pre-tournament friendly against Chile. They switched to a back five for the warm-up match with Denmark, using the same 5-3-2 formation in the group stage games with Portugal and Colombia. The DRC team was ranked 65th in the world, with teams ranked 19, 6 and 17 respectively scoring just two goals in those three games.
They also didn’t rely on luck. According to Opta, Denmark have a combined 0.74 expected goals, with Portugal (0.65 xG) and Colombia (0.98 xG) also struggling to create valuable opportunities. Desabre’s side have a knack for frustrating opponents, forcing them to make unlikely long-range shots when their attacking efforts are in danger of breaking down.
By keeping opposing teams a long distance from their goal, the DRC can maintain the low quality of the chances they face. While the average non-penalty shot in the group stage produced 0.10 expected goals, teams facing DRC averaged just 0.06. Only Spain’s defense was better by this metric and they were much more dominant in possession.
Chart showing the seven teams that allowed the lowest average expected goals per non-penalty shot to their opponents in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup.
DRC also allowed just four more shots than England into their own penalty areas in the group stage, an impressive result considering they faced much stronger teams.
Captain Chancel Mbemba forms a well-coached defensive line that is not prone to error. He and his colleagues caught 11 opponents offside in the group stage, the third-most of any team. They also made only one error directly leading to an opponent’s throw, two fewer than England, according to Opta.
The teams had never met before, although Thomas Tuchel had an idea of ​​how the game might end in a goalless draw with Ghana. This was the only group stage match in which England did not score from a set-piece, so a manager may view a dead-ball situation as a way to break through to the other team using a low block. But Tuchel may need a rethink. DRC allowed the ninth-most expected set-piece goals among the 48 group stage nations and the sixth-most non-penalty shots.
Chart showing the top six teams in terms of non-penalty expected goals conceded in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup.
England will have to shake up DRC’s virtually impenetrable back five. One positive is that their dribbling in advanced areas improves throughout the tournament; against Croatia, they completed four runs in the opponent’s half: six against Ghana and seven in the final half. One of Jude Bellingham’s corners helped win the corner from which he scored the first goal against Panama.
The challenge could be as simple as England needing to take a more clinical approach. No team missed more Opta-defined chances in the group stage (nine), although only Norway (14) had more total than England (13). Since the DRC has only allowed two opponents so far, creating them will be a bigger challenge.