NOAA raises the chance of a very strong El Niño later in the year to 81%. PHOTO: El Colombiano.
The monthly report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) this Thursday, June 9, raised to 81% the likelihood that El Niño will reach “very strong” intensity, which they colloquially call “Super Niño,” during the October to December quarter of this year. A month ago, the same probability was 63%.
This scenario would place the event among the most intense since reliable records existed, which is 1950, according to NOAA.
The organization also predicts that there is a 97% chance that El Niño will remain active until early 2027. NOAA itself has even warned that the strongest El Niño events will not have the same effects in all regions of the planet, for example, for Colombia there will be high temperatures, droughts and low rainfall.
For this reason, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) noted that El Niño conditions continue to accelerate and that if this evolution continues, “the most likely intensity will be very high between September this year and January 2027.”
Likewise, the international warning system for the phenomenon remains at an El Niño Advisory, a category that indicates ocean and atmospheric conditions continue to deteriorate steadily week after week.
Read here: Colombia to lose 50% of hydropower generation due to El Niño
https://x.com/NavarraalNatura/status/2075296699824705671?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
To understand what they are talking about, you need to look at the equatorial Pacific Ocean, namely the strip of sea called the Niño 3.4 region. There, scientists measure how much the water is warming above the historical average.
When this temperature exceeds 2 degrees Celsius for three months in a row, it is informally called a strong or very strong El Niño. In short, this is the most intense version this climate phenomenon can take.
Colin McCarthy, a meteorologist with US-based Stormwatch, says the tropical Pacific waters are nearly seven weeks ahead of any similar point in the phenomenon’s modern history.
According to his reading of the models, “the maximum strength could be as high as 3.6 degrees Celsius in an index called RONI, a version of a traditional index that takes into account the background warming the ocean is already bringing due to climate change.” Moreover, the order, if implemented, will exceed the previous record recorded in December 1877 by 0.7 degrees.
McCarthy estimates the chances of a Superbaby this winter are already as high as 94% in the model ensembles he tracks.
For his part, tropical meteorologist Alex Boreham of Florida State University explains that the Niño 3.4 region already reached 2 degrees of anomaly on July 8 this year, something no other year has achieved so early, not even 1997, which took until the end of August to reach that point. “The current warming streak is just days away from matching the record of 40 consecutive days set by this historic event nearly three decades ago.”
Colombian analysts who closely monitor the phenomenon agree that the strong El Niño barrier has already been overcome and that it will likely become very strong by August. The uncertainty, they say, is knowing how far it will go, since it could be an event that didn’t happen 140 years ago, or even surpass it.
In context: Energy prices on the stock market are up 285% and risks are warned due to the El Niño phenomenon.
https://x.com/IDEAMColombia/status/2075605501753053508?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meteorologist Ruben Garcia explains that the average of a suite of NMME models predicts a maximum anomaly of 3.6 degrees Celsius in the Niño 3.4 region for November. If this forecast comes true, it will surpass the strongest El Niño ever observed, the El Niño of 1877, by 0.7 degrees.
Garcia predicts corresponding climate changes over the next 12 to 18 months, such as a much less active than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic and, instead, a much more active one in the central and eastern Pacific. “Below normal rainfall and a risk of extreme drought are forecast for the Caribbean, northern South America and Central America.”
Fernando Valladares, a scientist and professor of ecology, emphasizes that this Niño is breaking all records and exceeding forecasts. Driven by climate change, he said, “this phenomenon will lead to extreme weather conditions that society is not prepared for.”
Doctor of Meteorology Ana Maria Pereira agrees that this 2026-2027 event is destined to go down in the history books. According to their calculations, the likelihood of a very intense El Niño between October and December increased by almost 20 percentage points compared with the previous month.
Sergio Cabrales, a professor and consultant in the mining and energy sector, warns that an event of this magnitude increases the likelihood of significant climate anomalies in the country.
“In practice, this will lead to reduced rainfall, increased pressure on water bodies and increased demand for heat and natural gas production,” he says.
In this panorama, the analytics firm Logox Knowledge and Intelligence details that Colombia produces about 65% of its energy from hydroelectric power plants.
Then, with El Niño, reservoirs are depleted at an accelerated rate and the system is forced to turn on more thermal power plants, whose fuel can become up to 77% more expensive in the most critical scenarios. “These additional costs are sooner or later reflected in the rates paid by households and industry.”
https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/2075203315252830440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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