Predictions for the World Cup, 1/8 finals: Portugal – Croatia, Spain – Austria and the rest of the 22nd round

Welcome to AthleticDaily forecasts for the World Cup.

In this article you will find detailed information about all of today’s games, but with the bonus of friendly competition…

Throughout the tournament we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke – with the help of our experts from each of the 48 countries) comparing our football knowledge with different Athletic subscriber every day and “Algo”, a new brilliant algorithm from Athleticwhich will debut in computer mode during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Oh, and there’s a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old boy called Wilfred (whom some of you may remember from last year’s Premier League predictions).

Today our guest subscriber Jeff is from the US and supports the USMNT and Portland Thorns.. Good luck Jeff!

If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.

What happened in the 21st round?

England got the job done in the end, but it was much more dramatic than many expected. England coach Thomas Tuchel, who had planned for DR Congo to play with a back five to aid their efforts to sit deep and defend, appeared taken aback by Congo’s back four and immediate desire to push forward. And in his first sustained attack of the game, Brian Chipenga was found unmarked in the England box and fired powerfully past Jordan Pickford – who will be disappointed not to have saved the ball – into the England goal, potentially resulting in one of the biggest knockout defeats in modern World Cup history.

England improved after the first hydration break and could easily have bounced back to their previous position before the break had it not been for some inspired play from goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau. But Tuchel’s pressure finally paid dividends in the 75th minute when Harry Kane fired past Mpasi-Nzau before the Bayern Munich striker scored his second of the game and 72nd of the season for club and country – the second-most of any 21st century player behind Lionel Messi in 2011-12 – to book a meeting with Mexico in Mexico City in the last 16 matches and bring a point to everyone on Predictions. headquarters.

Kane saved England (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)

If you thought that was dramatic, the second game of the day took the theater to the next level. Senegal were cruising to a 2-0 win and the pundits, Wilf and Stanley were very happy with our decision to back them until Romelu Lukaku pulled one back for Belgium in the 86th minute. Three minutes later, an error by Senegal’s goalkeeper allowed Youri Tielemans to score Belgium’s second goal, the most unlikely of comebacks given Senegal’s dominance, before Tielemans tucked away a penalty in stoppage time of extra time to progress and hand over the decisive point in the title race as predicted by Algo and readers.

Results from July 1, 2026

They will face the USMNT in the round of 16 after Mauricio Pochettino’s side beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. After a goal was ruled out for offside, Folarin Balogun made a crucial breakthrough just before half-time, but he will not feature for their match against Rudi Garcia’s Belgium after the referee red carded him for an accidental foul in the second half. Balogun has been Pochettino’s star at this World Cup and he will be a huge miss in a tough contest.

After everyone here predicted a USMNT victory, Algo ends the day at the top of the leaderboard again (damn Senegal’s inability to finish the game!). Forgive us for reading too much into this, but would it be crazy to say that the drama here is almost as good as what you see on the field?

How do forecasts work?

It’s pretty simple: we’ll give you some information about each game, players to watch, and facts about both teams. Then we will predict the result.

We’ll keep a leaderboard showing how everyone is performing on their predictions (ranked by percentage correct), but we’ll also keep track of “streaks” – the number of predictions each person gets right in a row. These stripes also form an important part AthleticInteractive Soccer Pick’ems feature allowing you to make your own picks for each round.

So come, participate, and check back every day to see how we’re progressing on the leaderboard – and, perhaps more importantly, whether you, the followers, Stanley, or Wilfred beat us.

Or, worst of all, can Algo prove that data and statistics know everything when it comes to forecasting.

Good luck and enjoy!

Why not try AthleticWorld Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast showing the likelihood of each team making it through each stage of the tournament, as well as a bracket showing the most likely round of 16 matches, the current standings and many other interesting forecasts and scenarios.

Predictions for the 22nd round

Spain vs Austria, Round of 16, kick-off 3:00 pm ET, 8:00 pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (USA), BBC (UK)

Stripe Risk Factor: 3/5. Spain weren’t entirely convincing, even after beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 in the group stage, but they should have enough talent to see off an equally underwhelming Austria.

View rating: 3/5. There’s already a lot of drama in the Round of 16, so why risk missing out on even more? The entertainment value of this match will likely depend on how effective Austria are in possession, as Spain will likely have more of the ball.

Our picks for July 2, 2026

Sports football experts say: “Austria’s progression to the knockout stages looked drama-free as they drew 2-2 with Algeria and the point was good enough for both to progress. All was calm until Riyad Mahrez scored in the 93rd minute the goal that would knock Austria out of the World Cup. Bedlam signaled and three minutes later substitute Sasa Kalajdzic headed in the equalizer to restore order 61 seconds after coming on.

“This is the first time since 1982 that Austria have advanced beyond the opening stages of the World Cup. Against Argentina in the second group game they prepared to neutralize their opponents, especially Lionel Messi, but when they got the ball they offered little. If they want a different result from the 2-0 defeat they suffered at the hands of the world champions here against the European champions, they will need more from whatever combination of attacking players coach Ralf Rangnick chooses.”

“Spain have looked better since the return of Lamin Yamal, but their 1-0 win over Uruguay in the final group stage match was a reminder that he needs others to step up too if they are to go far in this competition. They still don’t look like a cohesive, functioning attacking unit.”

Spain relied on Lamine Yamal in recent matches (David Ramos/Getty Images)

“However, Luis de la Fuente’s side got the job done against Uruguay and he will be pleased to come out of the group without conceding a goal, although they have yet to face an attack of real quality in this competition. Spain will be confident they can maintain that defensive record against Austria.”

Sports football experts: SPAIN VICTORY

Guest subscriber Jeff: SPAIN VICTORY

Six-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN VICTORY

Stanley, the dog: SPAIN VICTORY

Anything: SPAIN VICTORY

Portugal v Croatia, Round of 16, kick-off 7pm ET, 12pm (midnight) BST.

Where to watch: FOX (USA), BBC (UK)

Stripe Risk Factor: 5/5. Portugal are the more talented of the two teams, but for their sake they would do well to realize that. Neither team feels like a clear favorite here because they both have weaknesses that make this game difficult to predict.

View rating: 4/5. It’s unlikely to be a mind-bending thriller, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be drama.

Sports football experts say: “So, you know how we talked about how Roberto Martinez solved his problem with Cristiano Ronaldo before the final group game against Colombia? It seems like Portugal just have a common problem that raises doubts about how far they can go in this tournament.”

“With a chance to win their group, they finished comfortably in second place behind Colombia, and the weaknesses of their opening draw with DR Congo returned. For such a talented team, Portugal still lacks the ability to crush their opponents.”

Does Roberto Martinez know how to use 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo? (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)

“Croatia bounced back from defeat to England in the opening game of this World Cup to win their next two matches against Panama and Ghana. Neither game was easy and their winning goals came in the second half of both games, but it is that kind of toughness that has made Zlatko Dalic’s side so dangerous in previous tournaments.”

“They still have a lot of experience in the squad and in the knockout stages they showed they can manage a game, hold on when the going gets tough and be on the right side in the big moments, even if it’s a penalty shoot-out. Whether they’ve convinced them or not, they can’t be written off in a one-off match.”

Sports football experts: VICTORY FOR PORTUGAL

Guest subscriber Jeff: VICTORY FOR PORTUGAL

Six-year-old Wilfred: VICTORY FOR PORTUGAL

Stanley, the dog: CROATIA VICTORY

Anything: VICTORY FOR PORTUGAL

Switzerland – Algeria, 1/8 finals, kicks off at 23:00 ET, 4:00 Moscow time.

Where to watch: FS1 (USA), BBC (UK)

Stripe Risk Factor: 4/5. Switzerland should be among the favorites but have yet to maintain a clean sheet in this tournament, which should encourage Algeria, especially if Riyad Mahrez can roll back the years again.

View rating: 3/5. What an opportunity for both teams to reach the round of 16. This should encourage them to approach the game positively.

Sports football experts say: “Had Switzerland not lost to Qatar with a stoppage-time equalizer in their first match, there might have been a more positive outlook for the team, which would have progressed to the last 16 with maximum points. They are moving in the right direction and should be buoyed by a confidence-inspiring win over hosts Canada, where they put in a clinical performance when they were on top and weathered a late storm.”

“They have been the better team for at least large parts of all three games, so there is already a plan for how they approach this clash. They look to have found their starting XI going forward and their top scorer of the tournament with three goals, Johan Manzambi, looks impossible to dislodge.”

Johan Manzambi played for Team Canada, scoring three goals in three group stage matches (Dean Mukhtaropoulos/Getty Images)

“Algeria were involved in the most dramatic match of the tournament when, after trying to draw 2-2 with Austria in the final 30 minutes of the match, Mahrez scored, turning calm into chaos in a game that ended 3-3.

“The biggest positive for Algeria was that Mahrez scored twice – the first goal of his World Cup career at the age of 35, becoming the oldest Algerian to score in the tournament. They will need him to inspire them again if they are to reach the last 16 of the World Cup for only the second time.”

Sports football experts: SWITZERLAND VICTORY

Guest subscriber Jeff: ALGERIA VICTORY

Six-year-old Wilfred: SWITZERLAND VICTORY

Stanley, the dog: SWITZERLAND VICTORY

Anything: SWITZERLAND VICTORY