Quinn Allen
• Rates Analyst
More than 7 years betting experience
Updated: July 9, 2026 10:59 am ET.
• 4 minutes read
The Padres will target Merrill Kelly.
Photo – Reuters Connect. Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches.
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres tonight, and the home team will have an improving Griffin Canning on the mound.
My Predictions for the match Diamondbacks – Padres set their sights on San Diego to pounce on the inconsistent Merrill Kelly.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Padres today: Padres moneyline (-121)
Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight and he’s struggling to limit hard contact. The right-hander has a hard-hit rate of 51.3% over his last two starts and an alarming xERA of 11.54. Kelly also allowed 3.27 HR/9 in that span..
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres face off against Griffin Canning. Despite his struggles this season, Canning has posted a respectable 3.24 FIP over his last two starts, and the right-hander hasn’t thrown a single long ball.
After scoring 10 runs on Wednesday, the Padres will stay hot and punish Kelly while Canning continues to find form against the Diamondbacks offense, just 72 wRC+ over his previous six contests.
I will play this pick to -140.
OBJECTIVES INTEL: Canning has been significantly better at Petco Park, posting a 4.28 FIP at home compared to 5.96 on the road this season.
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Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over/Under: Under 8.5 (+109)
The Diamondbacks bullpen has a very respectable 3.04 FIP over the past week, while allowing a sharp level of just under 30%. They consistently limited the damage and allowed almost no home runs.
I expect the Padres to score some runs from Kelly, but Arizona’s relievers are underperforming and should be able to contain a San Diego lineup that isn’t exactly consistent despite their recent explosion.
As for the Padres pen, they not so good with FIP 4.94but as mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks are not doing well on offense. Canning should be able to limit the damage before turning things over to the bullpen.
I will play this pick to -130.
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL rates: 34-34, -4.21 units.
- Over/Under bets: 37-29, +2.26 units.
Weather Diamondbacks vs Padres
Weather should be mild and calm in Petco Park tonight, with temperatures starting around 71 degrees before dropping into the low 60s. Humidity will increase as the evening progresses and winds will remain light at around 5 to 7 mph. With no rain expected, the weather should have minimal impact.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds
- Money line: Arizona +113 | San Diego -117
- running line: Arizona +1.5 (-186) | San Diego -1.5 (+170)
- More/less: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+113)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.55 units/25% ROI). Learn more about MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Padres game and game information
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, California |
| Date | Thursday, July 9, 2026 |
| First serve | 21:40 Eastern Time |
| TV | DBacks.TV, Padres.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (6-8, 5.71 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (1-6, 6.71 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Latest Injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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