The chance of daily thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday before drier weather allows temperatures to rise back into the 90s by midweek. If the city reaches the century mark, it will approach the historical average. Even so, climate data shows that Houston’s first 100-degree day gives only a limited indication of how long and intense the rest of the summer will be.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Tuesday as a weak upper-level trough drifts across Southeast Texas.
The best chance of rain will be in the afternoon and evening hours as sea breezes interact with the remaining outflow boundaries from previous storms. Any storms can cause brief downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
The weak disturbance is expected to subside by Wednesday, reducing rain chances midweek. Another weakness in the upper-level model could bring back more typical summer showers and thunderstorms by next weekend.
Clouds and scattered storms should lower daytime highs by one to two degrees on Monday and Tuesday compared to previous days. This short break won’t last long.
Enhanced high pressure is expected to return across the region by Wednesday and Thursday, bringing daytime temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s. Combined with humidity, conditions will feel even hotter despite only minor changes in actual air temperature.
Hotter weather could push Houston closer to its first 100-degree mark of the year before rain chances increase again by the weekend.
If temperatures reach 100 degrees in Houston later this week, it will be close to the city’s long-term average on the first triple-digit day on July 19. Climate records dating back to the late 1800s show Houston’s 100-degree season lasting an average of about 23 days between the first and last century marks.
However, the timing of the first 100-degree day offered few clues about how the rest of the season would play out. Houston’s record-breaking summer of 2011 began with its first 100-degree day on June 2, followed by 46 triple-digit days, the most on record. In contrast, the city only reached 100 on July 1, 2024, and still recorded nine triple-digit days, while the first 100-degree day in 2025 didn’t come until July 22, followed by eight days with temperatures of 100 or higher.
The biggest takeaway for now is that the hottest part of Houston’s summer is likely still to come.