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There is still a chance that Tarik Skubal will play for the Detroit Tigers in this year’s postseason.
Trading Skubal before the 2026 trade deadline makes sense for the Tigers. I think it’s quite established. Detroit has a losing record, a less than one in three chance of making the playoffs in our odds, and one of the best players in the league on an expiring contract. This is the ideal trade deadline scenario.
But in recent weeks the situation has become even more confusing. The Tigers are hot, going 25-16 since June 1st. They are finally looking like the team we projected to win the AL Central heading into the season. However, they will need to go 9-2 to even meet the deadline with a .500 record, highlighting the depth of the hole they dug at the start of the year. Less than two weeks before that defining moment, the Tigers had stumbled upon a universal truth: Being alive is hard.
The Tigers’ season is off to a good start. They slipped out of April with an even 16-16 record and a positive run differential. They even started May by taking two out of three matches from the Rangers. But on May 4, Skubal landed on the IL with a sprained elbow, the latest injury in the rotation. They lost that night and went on a brutal 4-21 run that would drop them to the worst record in baseball by the end of the month.
The problem was not Skubal’s absence, as Jay Jaffe wrote at the time. In May, their batters posted a league-worst wRC+ of 69—nobody hit fewer homers, and only the Angels hit more. When the offense managed to get ahead, it was quickly succumbed to by a shallow bullpen that produced 24 collapses in May. There aren’t many ways to lose in baseball, but struggling to finish a game down 1-0 only to blow up in the end is one of the most frustrating. Understandably, attention was focused on Skubal’s return and his seemingly inevitable departure on schedule.
Then the calendar flipped to June. The Tigers started the month by beating the first-place Rays, scoring 25 runs with 10 homers in three games, and they haven’t cooled down since. Their 109 wRC+ over their last 41 games ranks in the top 10 in baseball, and their 72 homers are the best of any team. The lineup now has one of the best trios in the majors. Dillon Dingler (4.6) and Kevin McGonigle (4.0) are in the top 10 in WAR, while Riley Greene (2.8) is in the top 30. Colt Keith is on a hot streak, hitting eight homers since June 1 after going hitless for the first two months of the season. The Tigers also returned Gleyber Torres and his 127 wRC+ from an oblique injury on Monday. Suddenly this is a good, competitive squad.
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The bullpen has also improved as of late. Their 3.19 ERA since June 1 ranks fifth in the majors. This is a shallow group and the end of games can still feel a little dicey, while closer Kenley Jansen has a walk rate (14.7%) nearly double his career mark (7.9%). But the offense finally scoring some runs helped relieve some of the pressure. In May, the Tigers’ bullpen ranked sixth in the Leverage Index entering games; from June 1, they faced the weakest team of them all. Again, this isn’t a very good bullpen, and that’s likely an area the Tigers will want to address at the deadline if they add. But these days, less is required of them.
A competitive lineup and bullpen are all the Tigers need with their rotation, which has allowed the fewest runs in the majors during this hot stretch. But this is where the narrative of this article and the Tigers’ season has become more complex as of late. Casey Mize pitched Sunday looking to continue his breakout season (his 2.79 ERA and 2.62 FIP would be career bests), but he left the game early with the same groin strain that landed him on the IL twice this year; it’s everyday now. Jack Flaherty pitched Monday, hoping to continue his month-long hot streak (2.67 ERA and 3.25 FIP in seven starts since early June); he pitched poorly and was placed on the injured list with right flexor inflammation after the game. On Tuesday, Framber Valdez failed to get out of the first inning in what ended up being a crushing 11-2 loss to the Cubs; he’s not known to be hurt, but he’s coming off the worst full season of his career with a 4.57 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 20 starts.
Still, it was one of the best rotations in the majors all season, despite the injuries and inconsistency. They could still be like that in the future…assuming Skubal remains their ace. He was great. He had solid numbers in seven starts before the IL period (2.70 ERA and 2.11 FIP), he had solid numbers in seven starts after the IL period (2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP), and I predict he will have solid numbers the rest of the year regardless of who he pitches for. He was slightly homer-prone, allowing 1.09 per nine innings compared to 0.71 from 2022-25. But his stats and team numbers look the same as ever, and overall he hasn’t given up on harder contact or barrels. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s a sample size error, although teams will likely evaluate that ahead of the deadline.
Again, while Skubal’s absence wasn’t the Tigers’ main problem in May, we can see that on the days he was on the active roster, they largely played like a playoff-ready team:
We also see that the Tigers may have been a little unlucky in this regard. They are six games shy of their Pythagorean record, the biggest deviation in the majors this year. This is due in part to a 10-17 record in one-run games. In games decided by more than one run, they are tied 37–37 with a +31 run differential; Since June 1, they are 20-12 with a +62 run differential. So the Tigers seem to be playing better than their record would suggest, and they are really gaining momentum. But trailing the Guardians and White Sox by 6 1/2 in the Central and five behind the Red Sox for the third Wild Card, they are running out of time to make this a legitimate playoff push.
The Tigers must weigh what this long-term postseason push is worth. They have a young, team-driven core that can be competitive for years to come. Trading Skubal could obviously help further their future ambitions. They also technically don’t need Skubal to make the 2026 postseason. Without him, they would still have an above-average rotation (depending on the health of Mize and Flaherty), and some of the players they get in the trade could potentially help them this year. Plus, even if they make it to October with Skubal, that doesn’t guarantee they’ll advance—the Tigers lost both games he pitched in last year’s ALDS. Holding onto such a potentially valuable trade chip only to narrowly miss the postseason or suffer an early exit could cause some hard feelings and flashpoints.
However, this is a legitimate opportunity for the Tigers. It’s a bird in your hand. This is also quite an important bird. Skubal probably won’t have enough longevity in Detroit to be considered the “best” pitcher in franchise history, but he is the rare, era-defining player who is still in the prime of his career. The front office tends to work toward that chance, not away from it. A late-season comeback and deep playoff run on the shoulders of a franchise legend has to be worth something more than long-term team-building effectiveness. And the Tigers will likely extend Skubal’s qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they’ll at least get an extra draft pick if he signs elsewhere (assuming the system stays the same under the new CBA, of course). Of course, their midseason failure raises questions about the team’s potential in 2026, but it should also raise questions about its potential in 2027, 2028 and 2029. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, especially when a player like Skubal walks out the door.