A large pool of cold air originating from the polar region has poured across the Great Australian Bight and is set to cool Tasmania and the south-eastern part of mainland Australia in the coming days.
The cold air is clearly visible in a satellite image taken Wednesday morning, with a distinctive patchy cloud pattern over the Gulf.
As Weatherzone meteorologist Corinne Brown explains, “patchy clouds are cells of cumulus clouds that form when cold air moves over relatively warm water. This creates instability, with each cell potentially causing rain, hail, snow or thunderstorms. Between them lie clear patches of sky.”
Image: A four-hour combined satellite and radar loop until 11am (AEST) on Wednesday 22 July 2026, showing a cold air mass over the Gulf moving east. Source: Weatherzone
Cold winds make you feel cold
Many places in the mainland’s southeast and Tasmania are expected to have their coldest day of 2026 on Thursday. And even if the mercury doesn’t officially record its lowest high of the year, it will still feel like the coldest day in many places.
For example, the coldest day of 2026 in Melbourne was July 7, when the maximum reached just 11.0°C. But it was a relatively calm day after the thick morning fog cleared after many hours.
While the maximum in Melbourne is expected to reach 12C on Thursday, the apparent or “felt” temperature should not be above 6C for much of the day due to bone-chilling southwesterly winds blowing over Victoria.
It’s about to get even colder in Hobart. While the forecast high for Thursday is 9C, temperatures are expected to remain below freezing throughout the day, with snow falling as low as 300 meters above sea level in southern Tasmania. This means the highest suburbs of Hobart could see snowfall.
Image: 3 day forecast for Hobart, Tas. The brown line shows the apparent or “felt” temperature, which will remain below freezing throughout daylight hours on Thursday. Source: Weatherzone
How much rain and snow can you expect?
In Tasmania it will be a much wetter and snowier system than on the mainland.
As the chart below shows, western and parts of central Tasmania could expect heavy rain or snow over the coming days, while other locations will see lower rainfall totals from the event.
Image: Rainfall totals up to 10am on Saturday 25 July 2026 across south-eastern Australia, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone
The Victorian coast could see showers for a few days, but rainfall totals will still be below 20mm in most places.
The mainland Alpine region should see several inches of snow accumulate Thursday and Friday, and while the addition will be welcome, it won’t be the big snowstorm ski resorts are hoping for as snow levels are still relatively moderate for this time of year.
But early next week there were signs of a new cold front that could push further north, bringing more significant snowfall. Please visit the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live snow cameras and more.