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Several disasters in history London Stock Exchange match the trajectory of movement Ocado (LSE:OCDO) share price over the last five years.
The shares have collapsed by more than 90% since July 2021, leaving anyone with £1,000 invested back then with less than £100 left today. And with shares down another 21% since the start of 2026, the question on every long-suffering shareholder’s lips is the same: is there any hope left?
Should you buy Ocado Group Plc shares today?
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How did it come to this?
The story of Ocado’s collapse has three chapters.
First, there are runaway costs. Ocado has created truly world-class robotic food delivery technology, but the capital required to fund customer fulfillment centers (CFCs) around the world has been staggering. Losses accumulated year after year, with no clear path to profitability.
The second was client retreats. Partners such as Hooks And Sobeyswhich had taken on CFC’s ambitious expansion plans, has begun to retreat as the energy needed to run Ocado’s technology is cutting into profits.
The third and most recent was the leadership storm.
Efforts to remove founder and CEO Tim Steiner intensified before being resolved earlier this month, with the board confirming he would continue as CEO until early 2028 and then transition to an advisory role to the founder.
Is there a real recovery story here?
While the situation at Ocado is dire, there are some genuine signs of recovery. The latest full-year results showed group revenue up 12.1% to £1.4bn and adjusted EBITDA up 59% to £178m, well ahead of analysts’ expectations.
At the same time, management is targeting positive free cash flow in the second half of this fiscal year and positive full-year cash flow in fiscal 2027 (ending in November).
Meanwhile, earlier in May this year the group announced a new partnership with Asda that could potentially change that. Asda fulfills more than 700,000 online grocery orders across 1,100 stores every week. And the rollout of Ocado’s smart platform across the network from 2027 will go a long way in restoring not only growth, but also trust in the technology after recent high-profile customer defections.
This is obviously encouraging. But, unfortunately, the main risks have not disappeared. Net debt on the balance sheet remains in excess of £1 billion, revenue from technology solutions is expected to decline in the near future, and the legacy online grocery business has becomeRS-The joint venture remains unprofitable without a clear time frame for turning a profit.
So where does this leave investors today?
Can Ocado’s share price recover?
Ocado is a truly outstanding technology business. The CFC robotic platform is working, the Asda deal represents a significant vote of confidence and cash flow is finally moving in the right direction.
But the path from here to a sustainable and profitable enterprise still requires many years of flawless execution. And given such a sordid track record, investor confidence is understandably low.
That’s why I’m not tempted by Ocado’s seemingly very cheap share price until I see further progress in the recovery. At the moment I think there are much better opportunities to explore elsewhere, such as…
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Zaven Boyrazyan does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.