Phillies Near Postseason Clinch with Magic Number at Three, Bullpen and Rotation Under Spotlight
The Philadelphia Phillies returned from their final road trip of the 2025 regular season with work to do and a playoff berth within reach. Their magic number stands at three — any combination of Phillies wins and Diamondbacks losses totaling three guarantees the season extends beyond Sunday. Yet remaining in control of their destiny does not make the final week any less daunting, as the Phillies prepare to host the National League’s top-seeded Brewers followed by the American League’s best in the Tampa Bay Rays.
Bullpen Depth Concerns and the Rise of Alex McFarlane
Multi-inning McFarlane
The Phillies’ relief corps has posted a 5.50 ERA in September, and the club’s trust in its bullpen is stretched thinner than ever. Orion Kerkering was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Sunday after his struggles became unsustainable, rendering him ineligible for the wild-card roster barring an injury elsewhere in the staff. The circle of reliable arms is now extremely small.
While the rotation and closer Jhoan Duran rank among the best in baseball, the bridge between them has been the season’s biggest liability. Jonathan Bowlan, dealing with a groin injury, began playing catch Sunday and returned to the field Monday to continue rehab — but even a full recovery would make an immediate return to high-leverage eighth-inning duty difficult.
Enter Alex McFarlane. The 25-year-old rookie escaped a seventh-inning jam against the Mets on Sunday, retiring Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto back-to-back. His resume of delicate appearances already includes stars such as Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado.
Sunday’s outing also offered a window into interim manager Don Mattingly’s postseason bullpen blueprint. After McFarlane struck out Soto to preserve a two-run lead on just 18 pitches, the eighth inning passed without movement in the bullpen — until the bases loaded and Chase Shugart began warming. Had the lead held at two, Mattingly planned to bring McFarlane back out, with Duran heating up to finish the ninth.
Mattingly envisions McFarlane and Duran covering the final nine outs of a close game together. “I think it is realistic this time of year,” Mattingly said. “With Jho, you also get to the point where he’s capable of two innings. You’re just trying to get the guys that we need in the game, for as much as you can.”
McFarlane has logged more than one inning just once in his two months in the majors — 1⅓ innings against the Twins on Aug. 15. He said he is ready for anything.
“Just grateful for the opportunity. Whatever opportunity he gives me, I’m just gonna take it one game at a time. Make sure I prepare my best, and just give all I can anytime he sends me out there.” — Alex McFarlane
Rotation Flexibility in Postseason Planning
Starters in Relief
The Phillies have yet to map out how they will deploy their rotation in a wild-card series, partly because so much remains uncertain: whether they make the playoffs at all, who they would face, and the health of Jesús Luzardo. The club is “very optimistic” about Luzardo’s progress from shoulder inflammation, according to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Like Bowlan, Luzardo has progressed to playing catch.
Should Luzardo return in time, Dombrowski said the Phillies are keeping their options open — he could start, though pitching on short rest after Sept. 7 carries risk, or serve in relief, a role in which he has some experience. In Game 4 of the 2025 NLDS, Luzardo threw 1â…” innings of emergency relief in extras. His performance was overshadowed by Kerkering’s throwing error that allowed Los Angeles to walk off, but the outing demonstrated his capacity to handle high-leverage bullpen work.
Dombrowski confirmed that some starters will move to the bullpen in the postseason. “We’re going to be the best-of-three, so you only can start three guys at that point. So you got two other guys that can go into the bullpen.”
It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez do not start two of the wild-card games. Aaron Nola has posted a 2.15 ERA since Aug. 3 but has never served in a relief role during his career. Rookie Andrew Painter remains under consideration — he gave up four runs in his last start against the Mets, but his stuff remained elite, touching 99.4 mph in the fifth inning.
Painter does not believe he needs a trial run to feel comfortable in relief, citing his experience with routine shifts earlier in the season. “I feel like postseason baseball, in that atmosphere, the adrenaline is going to be flowing,” Painter said. “I don’t really think there’s much of an adjustment that’s going to be there.”
Trea Turner’s Selectivity Improvement
Whether the Phillies’ offense fires at the right time or slides into a familiar October slump remains unknown, but encouraging signs emerged against the Mets. The top of the order carried the load, and Trea Turner provided a notable bright spot.
Turner finished the four-game series 4-for-13 with a .308 batting average, but the more revealing figure was his .526 on-base percentage. His 53.6% chase rate on out-of-zone pitches this year is the second-highest of his career, and he drew six walks in the series — a sharp contrast to earlier struggles.
Mattingly highlighted the strategic implication: “The more he walks, the more they’re forced in the strike zone. And when he’s on base, obviously it creates a danger there with him running and things like that. We need him to get on base. When he’s on base, we’re better.”
Road Ahead: Brewers and Rays Homestand
The final homestand presents perhaps the toughest remaining test on the Phillies’ schedule. Hosting the Brewers — the NL’s top team — followed by the Rays, the AL’s best, will expose every roster weakness and strength. With the magic number at three, each game carries playoff implications, and the bullpen’s availability, Luzardo’s health, and Turner’s continued selectivity will all be decisive factors.
The Phillies remain in control of their destiny, but as the stretch run approaches, control is only as valuable as the execution behind it.
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