With the July holidays going on vacation there will be hot and generally dry weather. We won’t be safe from other heat waves or even heat waves.
Week of July 6 to 12: new heat wave, heat wave in the south
A heat wave has been confirmed and will intensify throughout the week heading north. In the south we will be talking about a heat wave, especially in the southwest where several days in a row could reach 40°C. The heat is expected to increase in the north, especially in the middle of the week. Under these conditions, the weather will remain dry, with very active sun and almost no precipitation, except for possible thunderstorms in the mountains.
Northern half trend © LKM
Week 13 to 19 July: Still very hot, but harder due to the National Day.
This week, the national holiday will be marked by traditional fireworks on the evening of July 13th or 14th, depending on the city. Weather-wise, the weather is expected to continue to be hot, but perhaps with a little more instability and humidity. Although it is too early to talk about widespread thunderstorms, the situation will need to be monitored as the weather could ruin the fireworks display.
Week of July 20 to 26: Continued heat with thunderstorms.
Reliability is becoming more limited now, but the heat wave may well continue with temperatures well above seasonal norms. Several storms may develop, especially near hills and sometimes on a wider scale.
Southern half of the trend © LKM
Week of July 27 to August 2: Intensifying drought?
At this stage, reliability becomes extremely limited. However, the prevailing scenario remains the persistence of hot and dry conditions over France due to the recurrence of high geopotential rising from the Maghreb into France. In this context, we may fear an increase in drought by early August, with the risk of very hot weather remaining, especially in the south.
This 4-week trend, updated every Thursday around 5:00 pm, is likely to change significantly with each update.