HomeBusinessUFC 331 preview and picks: Pantoja sees opportunity in disaster

UFC 331 preview and picks: Pantoja sees opportunity in disaster

By Brett Okamoto | ESPN Sports | September 17, 2026

UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja’s Comeback Meets Joshua Van’s Undefeated Reign in Flyweight Title Showdown

For two and a half years, Alexandre Pantoja dominated the UFC flyweight division with a level of performance not seen since Demetrious Johnson ruled the 125-pound bracket nearly a decade ago. Now, after nine months away from competition, the former champion returns to face Joshua Van for the title at UFC 331 inside Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Saturday — and the stakes have never been higher.

The 36-year-old Brazilian (30-6) challenges Van (17-2) in a rematch that carries the weight of unfinished business. Their first meeting at UFC 323 ended dramatically just 26 seconds into the bout, with Van earning a TKO victory after Pantoja suffered a dislocated elbow. It was the first time Pantoja had ever been finished by knockout or submission, and for a fighter who spent years building an impenetrable reputation, the loss stings in ways that go beyond the record.

“As an athlete, yes, I have a TKO loss on my record,” Pantoja told ESPN. “I’ve never lost by TKO or submission before. Nobody had ever finished me. Now, I have that. But personally, as a man? No. I don’t believe I have a loss to him.”

That defiant mindset captures the essence of a rivalry that has quickly become one of the most compelling in the UFC’s flyweight history. Pantoja won the belt from Brandon Moreno in 2023 and successfully defended it four times before Van dethroned him. At his peak, Pantoja ranked among the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. The comeback narrative surrounding his return adds an extra layer of intrigue to what is shaping up to be the most anticipated 125-pound title fight since Henry Cejudo ended Johnson’s near-five-year reign in 2018 and then defended against then-bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw in 2019.

Unfinished Business Drives Pantoja’s Return

Pantoja has been vocal about the emotional dimension of this fight. For a fighter who has never been finished in his entire professional career, the sudden and abrupt loss to Van was as jarring as it was unexpected. Now, the opportunity to write the next chapter of his story is exactly the kind of moment elite competitors crave.

“For sure, this is an opportunity,” Pantoja said. “In my soul, that’s the opportunity. Now, I get to fight the champion. He’s the champion of the world and I love that. It makes the fight more spicy for me.”

The comeback angle resonates deeply with fans and pundits alike. After 10 months away from training camp, Pantoja says he has recovered fully from his elbow injury and is eager to prove — to himself and the world — that the finish in December was an aberration, not a declaration of decline.

“Saturday night is going to be my best night, man,” Pantoja said. “I haven’t been to work in 10 months. That’s why all of these fights, and this one especially, is worth so much. We work for months to just get one night of work. I’ve recovered my arm. Now I have an opportunity to show everyone what I did in the last 10 months.”

Meanwhile, Van, just 24 years old, has fully embraced the narrative. While some observers argue that the young champion needs another victory over Pantoja to truly legitimize his reign, Van’s first title defense against Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328 strengthened his case. Despite Taira’s dangerous ground game, Van rallied to knock out the Japanese challenger in the fifth round, earning fight-of-the-night honors and silencing many of his doubters in the process.

A History of Comebacks: Can Pantoja Follow Cruz’s Path?

If Pantoja is searching for inspiration, he would be wise to look beyond recent precedent. Within the past two weeks, two UFC champions — women’s flyweight Valentina Shevchenko and heavyweight Tom Aspinall — vacated their titles due to health issues, and their paths back to the top remain uncertain.

The history of champions returning from significant injuries to reclaim their belts is not encouraging at the top end. In November 2022, Jiří Procházka vacated the UFC light heavyweight title after a shoulder injury in training. His successor, Jamahal Hill, won the vacant belt only to vacate it himself after rupturing his Achilles. Upon recovery, Hill was granted a rematch and lost. Procházka received three subsequent shots at the 205-pound strap and fell short each time.

The Highest Cost: When Champions Don’t Return

The Procházka-Hill saga serves as a sobering reminder that injuries don’t just sideline fighters — they can permanently alter careers. When a champion vacates due to health concerns and a replacement title is created, the original belt holder often finds the window to return narrowed to nearly impossible proportions.

Dominick Cruz: The Blueprint for a Successful Comeback

For a successful comeback blueprint, Pantoja should study Dominick Cruz more than any recent example. Preparing for a bantamweight title defense in May 2012, Cruz tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Surgery followed, then a setback requiring a second ACL procedure six months later. A groin tear in training pushed his return even further, ultimately forcing Cruz to vacate his title.

Cruz returned in September 2014 and won a fight that positioned him for another title opportunity. Three months later, he tore the ACL in his other knee — a devastating blow that would have ended most careers. Yet Cruz persevered. In February 2016, more than four years after his last title fight, he challenged Dillashaw and won a split decision.

“I had to show something to myself,” Cruz said afterward. “That’s what this was.”

Those words likely echo in Pantoja’s mind. The difference is that Pantoja’s injury was instantaneous and catastrophic rather than cumulative, meaning his recovery timeline may be more straightforward — provided his body responds as expected at age 36.

Other UFC Storylines to Watch at UFC 331

The flyweight title fight headlines the card, but the broader UFC landscape offers several compelling narratives unfolding in parallel.

Arman Tsarukyan’s Redemption Arc at Lightweight

Arman Tsarukyan was labeled a snubbed fighter when the UFC announced that Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett would headline the first UFC card of 2026 with the No. 1 lightweight contender status on the line. That sentiment, however, has faded considerably given the year Tsarukyan has put together.

Without a clear UFC opponent, Tsarukyan competed in wrestling bouts — mostly in the RAF — 10 times during 2026. He simultaneously grew his social media presence through videos showcasing luxury cars, fine dining, and collaborations with content creator Nina Drama. This represents the longest layoff of his UFC career, but his brand has arguably expanded more during this period than from any single fight.

Tsarukyan appears well-positioned to return to the octagon and earn the title shot many believe he deserves. His opponent, Mauricio Ruffy, is a dangerous underdog (+270, per DraftKings). This bout promises to restore order at the top of the 155-pound division, regardless of the outcome.

Gable Steveson: Olympic Gold Meets the UFC Crucible

Any MMA prospect would trade places with 26-year-old UFC newcomer Gable Steveson. As an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling and one of the most heavily promoted heavyweight prospects in MMA history, Steveson’s trajectory comes with both extraordinary opportunity and minimal margin for error.

The UFC is managing his opposition carefully. For his second UFC appearance and fifth professional fight overall, Steveson faces Sean Sharaf, a 33-year-old who has suffered two knockout losses in his first two UFC outings. Steveson enters as a heavy favorite (-2100 by DraftKings), as he did for his promotional debut in July. With Tom Aspinall having vacated the heavyweight title and the top contender pool thin, Steveson’s performance may matter more than the result. If he continues to impress, his career trajectory could accelerate at a pace few anticipate.

Coaches’ Tactical Breakdown and Predictions

What a fight this will be. Van shows up in big moments; he’s just a proven gamer. If Pantoja stands with Van, he’s going to get hurt. Pantoja is good at applying pressure and landing the 1-2 punch, but he cannot play that game with Van because of Van’s counterboxing. Van’s hands are too fast. Van can land four-to-six shots at a time in close distance, and that’s something Pantoja really has to watch for. Van is going to have confidence in his ability to get off the ground from his last fight against Taira. I’m going to stay on the fence and say it’s a pick ’em. After watching Van’s fight with Taira, knowing how good Taira is on the ground, it’s a little unfair to say Van can’t weather the storm on the ground with Pantoja. — Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA

Prediction: Too close to call


Van is young, fired up and he’s got bricks in his hands. We’ve seen some small weaknesses in his game, which are due to lack of experience. He’s getting better all the time. If Pantoja comes back and is anywhere close to where he was when holding the belt, I think he gets it back. The biggest question is how bad of a setback is Pantoja’s injury at this stage of his career. He’s not a spring chicken. But if he’s the same Pantoja, he gets the win, potentially by submission. — John Wood, Syndicate MMA

Prediction: Pantoja by decision or submission

Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy: Tactical Outlook

Arman has been on such a tear with wrestling in RAF, showing his ability to handle bigger guys with power and skill in grappling. Ruffy is finding his groove on the feet, but former opponents King Green and Michael Chandler don’t pose the same grappling threat that Arman does. Benoît Saint Denis kind of exposed that hole in Ruffy’s game. In space, Ruffy is a problem — he can absolutely stalemen Arman. But how does he keep a powerhouse like Arman at distance? — Sayif Saud

Prediction: Tsarukyan by decision


Arman is going to want to grind out Ruffy. Arman is easily a top-five wrestler/grappler in the UFC. Unless Ruffy catches him and knocks him out, Arman is a good striker too and can go the distance in a hard fight. My gut leans to Arman. — John Wood

Prediction: Tsarukyan by decision

ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this story.

Sports, MMA, UFC, Combat Sports, UFC 331, UFC Flyweight Division, Alexandre Pantoja, Joshua Van, MMA Fighters, Los Angeles Sports, UFC Events, Comeback Stories, MMA Predictions, Professional Wrestling, Olympic Wrestling, Social Media Influencers, UFC Champions, Sports Competition, Live Entertainment, News, Online

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