Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened in the northeastern Gulf, where it is expected to bring periods of rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana.
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Late Tuesday morning, Bertha’s maximum wind speeds increased from 50 to 60 mph, but the storm’s strength is expected to change little through the end of Tuesday.
Bertha may have strengthened, but it is still not a well-organized tropical storm. The majority of thunderstorms continue to occur in its southern half as unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air continue to hamper development despite fuel coming from near-record warm Gulf waters.
This lopsided structure will keep most of Bertha’s heaviest rain and strongest winds offshore as it creeps west along the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
However, tropical storms begin to move into the immediate Florida Panhandle coast Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm is also dumping bands of rain and rough surf on parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
Bertha’s moisture will also help increase the threat of flooding hundreds of miles to the Southeast. A slowing cold front across the region will pull moisture out of the Gulf Wednesday through the end of the week, especially over the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia.
Bertha is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which has gotten off to a slow start compared to previous years as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that this will keep the number of named systems in the Atlantic below average this season.
Bertha will likely track along the Gulf Coast and make landfall or make contact with the coast of southeastern Louisiana by early Wednesday evening as a weak tropical storm.
Bertha is then forecast to head toward the Upper Texas Coast, weakening to a tropical depression later this week, but it may not reach that far west. The deadly storm wind shear Bertha is currently battling could lead to its early extinction off the Louisiana coast.
Wind shear is a change in the speed or direction of winds in the upper atmosphere that literally tears storms apart. This is also the reason that most of Bertha’s thunderstorms occur south of its center.
Land interaction with the Gulf Coast will ultimately exacerbate hostile conditions, depriving Bertha of the warm, moist ocean conditions that fuel its thunderstorms.
Regardless of the system’s fate, bands of rain, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the western Florida Panhandle, coastal Alabama, Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. These areas are expected to experience tropical storm conditions—sustained winds of more than 39 mph—over the next 36 hours. Tropical storm watches are in effect as far west as south-central Louisiana.
Here’s what to expect:
• Precipitation: Just 1 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This may cause localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas such as New Orleans.
• Wind: Sustained winds of more than 39 mph are expected in the tropical storm warning area for the west coast of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and the southeast coast of Louisiana late Tuesday through Wednesday. Strong thunderstorm gusts can cause isolated power outages.
• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border, especially during morning high tides Wednesday and Thursday. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, where moderate coastal flooding is possible in low-lying areas.
• Dangerous conditions on the beach: Rough surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue to impact beaches from the Florida Panhandle west to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana through at least Thursday. These are life-threatening conditions for even the strongest swimmers.