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A year and a half after Canadians began abandoning travel south of the border, at least some are hitting the road again.
Return trips by Canadians from the United States increased by 3.2 per cent in June compared with the same month last year, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
Inbound travel by Canadians from the United States increased for the third month in a row, after rising 9.5 percent in May and 1.4 percent in April.
This increase was driven by increased travel by car, with 5.2% more Canadians returning from the US by car compared to June last year. Air traffic from the United States fell 3.8 percent in June compared with the same period last year.
But the small jump in road trips doesn’t bring Canadians’ travel to the U.S. any closer to normal levels — so while some in the U.S. travel industry are hopeful, it may not provide a major boost to business anytime soon.
Compared to June 2024 — before trade war tensions and threats of annexation from U.S. President Donald Trump forced Canadians to cancel travel plans to the U.S. — return trips by Canadians from the U.S. dropped by as much as 28.7 percent over the past month.
Wayne Smith, professor and director of the Institute of Hospitality and Tourism Research at the University of Toronto, sees the increase as a slight “normalization” of Canadian travel to the U.S. rather than a sign that Canadians are moving away from the elbows-up movement.
“I think this is essentially our new normal,” Smith said of the current rate of travel south of the border, with the number of Canadians visiting the U.S. steadily declining over the past year and a half.
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‘Cautious optimism’ for US tourism industry
Christy Kennedy, vice president of marketing and operations for the North Country Chamber of Commerce, says the numbers are consistent with what she’s seeing in New York state, near the Quebec border.
She says some local businesses have seen a slight increase in travel from Canadians. And Kennedy herself heard more people speaking French in public — something she didn’t hear much of last year, when many Canadians chose to stay home or go elsewhere.
“It was quiet, of course, and I think everyone who lives here, whether you’re hospitable or not, definitely noticed that and realized it was missed,” Kennedy said.
The Chamber of Commerce has been running an advertising campaign since last year to demonstrate its commitment to improving relations between citizens on both sides of the border, Kennedy said.
“I know it will take some time and require some work, like any relationship, whether it’s two people or two countries,” Kennedy said, adding that she is optimistic that Canadians and Americans will eventually get there.
Golfers play on a course in New York State. Christy Kennedy with the North Country Chamber of Commerce says her area was short of Canadian tourists last year, but some businesses have started to see more Canadian travelers returning in 2026. (Submitted by Christy Kennedy)
Amir Eilon, president and CEO of travel consultancy Longwoods International, says the recent increase in cross-border travel may be due in part to the fact that some of these campaigns have paid off.
He suspects that offers with financial incentives – such as a 15 per cent discount for Canadians or par exchange rate offers – could be particularly attractive to travelers looking for a bargain.
The rising cost of jet fuel, which is driving up airfares, could also be a factor. Eilon predicts that some people who wouldn’t otherwise put a U.S. destination at the top of their list might choose it over a trip to Europe, for example, anyway because it allowed them to drive and save money.
And another possible reason for the June increase? The FIFA World Cup is co-hosted by Canada, the United States and Mexico. Eilon says the tournament could entice some Canadian soccer fans to head south to watch their favorite teams play in person.
“I think the combination of all of these factors is likely responsible for the strong performance in June,” Eilon said.
He says the situation over the past three months has given his industry cautious optimism.
“It’s too early to tell whether the situation has really changed significantly,” Eilon said. But “Three months of growth in a row, even though it’s very gradual… it’s still growth.”
Still, TMU’s Smith isn’t so sure this small trend will give the U.S. tourism business a boost.
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The travelers who spend the most and stay the longest are those who arrive by plane, Smith said, and the increase in cross-border travel comes from driving, while air travel for Canadians returning from the U.S. has declined year-over-year in each of the past three months.
Additionally, at least some of those visits to the U.S. will likely be business trips, which Smith said won’t provide the same boost to tourism. (It’s unclear how much of the travel is business versus pleasure, as Statistics Canada data released today does not reveal the reasons for travel.)
Overall, Smith said changing travel habits, as well as a weak Canadian dollar, are obstacles that will make it harder for the U.S. to attract Canadian travelers back.
“If I were to look at it from a U.S. perspective, these would still be very alarming numbers,” Smith said.