Home IndiaThe escalation trap: about the United States and the war with Iran

The escalation trap: about the United States and the war with Iran

by OmarAli
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The decision by Yemen’s Ansar Allah group, better known as the Houthis, to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia signals that the war with Iran has entered its most dangerous phase. The Houthis, a close ally of Iran, have avoided direct intervention due to a fragile but functional ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, even though they control most of Yemen’s populated areas, including the capital Sanaa. This ceasefire was effectively violated on July 13, when the airport in Sana’a was attacked by forces of the “internationally recognized government of Yemen.” This government, based in Saudi Arabia, maintains loyal forces within Yemen, although the Houthis remain the country’s most powerful and influential political and military force. Blaming Riyadh for the attack, the Houthis announced on July 20 a blockade of ships calling at Saudi ports on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, whose exports of crude oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz are severely limited by the Iranian blockade, has increased its dependence on Red Sea ports, especially Yanbu. Tankers from Yanbu to Asian markets must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast overlooking Bab al-Mandeb and could enforce a blockade of this narrow passage.

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on February 28, all Gulf states scrambled to maintain their exports. Saudi Arabia, however, has mitigated the impact by using its East-West pipeline, which links its eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals. If the Houthis implement a complete blockade of the kingdom, Riyadh could face much deeper economic turmoil. This, coupled with Iranian attacks on Kuwait’s desalination plants and power grid – following US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure – paints a grim picture of the war and its regional consequences. While the first phase of Iran’s counterattack targeted the Gulf monarchies, the second phase expanded to include Jordan, home to two major US military bases. Now, with the Houthi blockade, the economic suffering of the war will deepen even further. US President Donald Trump had an opportunity to exit the conflict when he signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 17. But by returning to war over disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump not only squandered that opportunity, but also raised the risk of dragging the United States into another eternal, unwinnable war. For now, he is using the same military tactics against Iran repeatedly, expecting different results. If Mr. Trump wants to find a solution, he should change course, achieve an immediate ceasefire and return to diplomacy.

Published – Jul 24, 2026 12:20 pm EST.

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