The AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has advanced, according to a new poll. But with the SPD and the Greens making progress, the alliance of the SPD, the Left and the Greens may struggle to win a majority in the new state parliament.
A good ten weeks before state elections, the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is still in the lead but could lose to the red-red-green alliance, according to a new poll. Since, in addition to the SPD, the Greens are also making small gains, both parties, together with the left, can mathematically hope for a tiny majority of seats in the new parliament, as seen in a poll conducted by the public opinion research institute Infratest dimap on behalf of the Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR).
Accordingly, the AfD’s share remains unchanged at 36 percent. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig’s SPD improved by two percentage points to 29 percent since the institute’s last poll in May. The Greens, who have so far failed to reach the five per cent threshold of 4 per cent in the polls, will receive one point in the new poll and will therefore be represented in the next state parliament, which will be elected on September 20.
Green success will create opportunities
Together with the Left, which has dropped one point since the last poll and now stands at 12 percent, the Red-Red-Greens will have 46 percent – one point more than the other parties represented in state parliament combined.
According to the poll, the CDU could still count on 9 percent – one point less than in May. Like the FDP and all other parties, BSW is likely to fail at the five percent threshold.
In the 2021 state elections, the Social Democrats were the strongest force with 39.6 percent. Then the AfD received 16.7 percent, the CDU – 13.3, the left – 9.9, the Greens – 6.3 and the FDP – 5.8 percent of the vote. Since then, Schwesig has ruled the country with the left in a red-red government.
Survey Brief:
- AfD: 36 percent (unchanged)
- SPD: 29 percent (+2)
- CDU: 9 percent (-1)
- Left: 12 percent (-1)
- Greens: 5 percent (+1)
A total of 1,167 voters of all ages, educational levels and gender in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were surveyed between 2 and 6 July 2026. According to NDR, the survey is representative. 1,000 people took part in the online survey from June 11 to June 18. The institute said the margin for error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
dpa/ceb