Patriots Edge South to Face Jaguars in Sunny Jacksonville Showdown
To escape the wind and the rain this weekend, the Patriots are flying south to a place famous for both this time of year.
Welcome to Florida.
The Pats’ first trip to Jacksonville since 2018 could feature one of their closest games of the year, with the Jaguars slated as 3-point favorites heading into kickoff, and both teams at 1-1.
Like the Patriots, the Jags made a surprise run to a division title last season by winning 13-plus games, most of which they collected over a long win streak.
Since then, Jacksonville lost a tight wild-card playoff game to the Bills, clobbered the Browns in its season opener and dropped a low-scoring battle at Denver last weekend.
Despite being held to 13 points last Sunday, the Jaguars’ offense will present by far the toughest test the Patriots defense has faced this year.
And Drake Maye can expect to see similar coverage schemes from their defense, which have bothered him dating all the way back to the postseason.
A High-Stakes Matchup Between Two 1-1 Teams
Both franchises sit at the bottom of their respective divisions, making this encounter a pivotal moment in the regular season. The Jaguars enter the game as 3-point favorites, while the Patriots trail them in the standings despite sharing the same record.
With both teams at 1-1, the stakes are high as they vie for playoff positioning and momentum.
When Patriots Run: Exploiting the Jaguars’ Defense
Last weekend, TreVeyon Henderson’s 39-yard touchdown run was the highlight of an improved rushing performance for the Patriots, who can be expected to split carries more evenly between Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in Jacksonville.
Stevenson finished with more broken tackles than Henderson and a higher rushing success rate, reflecting he gained yards more consistently than the second-year speedster.
Despite an opening-drive fumble, Stevenson showed promise in controlling the clock and creating opportunities.
However, the injured Mike Onwenu (broken ankle) was the NFL’s second-best run-blocker at his position, per ESPN’s run-block win rate, through Week 2.
Van Roten struggled as an injury replacement last weekend, but has a history in McDaniels’ system, having played for him in Las Vegas.
When Jaguars Pass: Testing New Defensive Schemes
Maye struggles with Cover 6, a zone coverage built on one safety covering a deep half and a safety and a cornerback defending the other half in two quarter zones, while four defenders roam underneath.
The Patriots managed to exploit Cover 6 by running the ball against Pittsburgh, but Maye’s passing numbers (1-of-3 for 26 yards, a scramble) were still unimpressive.
As for Jacksonville, that was their second-most common coverage last year under defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, who also isn’t afraid to bring pressure.
If the Patriots can’t run the Jaguars out of playing two deep safeties so often, they may be able to protect Maye long enough versus their four-man rush to give him time to find holes in the zone.
This will fall primarily on offensive tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses.
Jaguars’ Offensive Threats: Bayshul Tuten’s Surge
One of the most underrated runners in the NFL, Tuten ranks third in the league in missed tackles forced, per PFF.
He has electric speed and an ability to make defenders miss in tight spaces at 5-foot-9 and 209 pounds.
Tuten is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season and scored a touchdown at Denver.
Given their injuries at outside linebacker, the Patriots should prepare for Jacksonville to stress their defense on the edges, where Tuten will be a threat with his breakaway speed.
The Jags might also pick on second-round rookie Gabe Jacas with some option runs after he struggled with those plays in the preseason.
Jaguars’ Passing Dangers: Meyers and Thomas Jr.’s Threats
Parker Washington leads his offense in targets, catches and receiving yards, but he’s not the only threat Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr must be mindful of Sunday.
Former Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers is waiting to break out this season, totaling just three catches in two games after he racked up more than 800 yards last year.
There’s also drop-prone Brian Thomas Jr., a 2024 first-round pick with a world of talent who hasn’t rediscovered the form he found his rookie season.
And at tight end, Brenton Strange is a top target inside the red zone for Lawrence, who will surely look to exploit the Patriots’ injury woes at safeties either with 1-on-1 throws to Strange or deep shots off play-action.
Game Prediction: Jaguars 24, Patriots 23
Jaguars 24, Patriots 23
Key Takeaways for Sunday’s Battle
How well the Patriots keep a lid on Jacksonville’s deep passing game will be one of the chief keys for them defensively.
They need to neutralize Tuten’s breakaway speed and protect Maye from the Jaguars’ four-man rush.
Conversely, Jacksonville must manage their offensive line given the injuries, particularly on the edges where Tuten operates.
The game promises to be a tactical chess match between two teams fighting for survival in their division.
Why This Game Matters for Both Organizations
This matchup represents more than just a single contest—it’s a statement for both franchises. For the Patriots, a victory would boost morale following a difficult season and demonstrate their ability
