Child returned to the Pacific, and while much of the attention has focused on its impact on agriculture and the regional economy, its implications for shipping deserve equal attention.
Having spent over two decades at sea and now leading global routing at Sofar Ocean, I have learned that the biggest operational risk is rarely the weather itself. He makes decisions based on assumptions that are no longer true.
This problem will only get worse in 2026: if predictions are correct, it could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record, leaving fewer historical peers to plan against. Climatology alone will not be enough. The best decisions depend on understanding what the ocean is doing today and what it is likely to do tomorrow.
What scientists say
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BM) is now forecasting a strong to very strong El Niño, with about half of its models suggesting the event could peak at some of the highest levels seen since 1950. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center came to a similar conclusion in a June 2026 El Niño advisory, confirming that the event had formed and was expected to intensify through the end of the year, with a 97% chance of persisting until early spring 2027. In mid-June, the Niño 3.4 index rose to 1.7°C, and forecasters now have a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0°C, the threshold for a “very strong” El Niño, this fall.
Because there are so few comparable events in the historical record, predicting the regional impacts of a potential super El Niño remains a major challenge for seasonal models only.
This is why real-time data matters most when making delivery decisions. Sofar’s network of direct ocean observations, combined with high-resolution forecasts, tracks winds, waves and currents as they develop, helping operators overcome model uncertainty and make safer, more informed routing decisions as conditions become increasingly unstable.
What will change in Australian shipping?
Iron ore from Port Hedland, LNG from Dampier, coal from Newcastle and the trans-Tasman all traverse areas where winds, wave heights and ocean currents can change quickly as events unfold.
On average, during El Niño years, Australian waters generally experience calmer conditions – there are fewer tropical cyclones, especially off Queensland, and waves generally weaken as the season progresses. But averages may mask real volatility: a seasonally quieter year does not rule out sharp, short-lived extremes, and the dominant risk to Australian trade this year may be land-based – drought and an increased risk of bushfires that could disrupt coastal logistics and reduce exports from key regions.
The region is entering a more difficult phase to predict more broadly. Persistent disruptions in the Middle East continue to force route changes away from traditional corridors and increase costs, while peak-season capacity crises in Oceania are reducing ship space and limiting scheduling flexibility. Schedule reliability, although improving, remains below historical norms, reducing the chance of error on each flight. For ship operators, the real challenge is not knowing whether El Niño is present, but understanding how conditions will develop over the next few hours and days along a particular route. Small changes in wave direction, current strength or wind patterns can have a significant impact on fuel consumption, vessel propulsion, schedule performance and safety.
From fines to fines to grain export volumes
The Bank of Moscow’s forecast points to drier conditions in central and eastern Australia during the winter and spring, with weaker grain harvests in South Australia or Victoria expected to be reflected in lower export volumes from Adelaide, Geelong and Portland.
For shipping companies, the commercial implications of a strong El Niño extend far beyond severe weather. Increased forecast uncertainty reduces confidence in ETAs and makes it more difficult to meet schedule commitments. A shift as short as 12 hours can cause the downtime window to slip, causing downtime disputes or missed berth slots to occur throughout the shift.
Operating the Laycan is also becoming more difficult, with charterers and owners facing stringent demands for early departures or delayed departures due to safer weather. Meanwhile, speed and route decisions made several days in advance often require revision mid-voyage, resulting in costs in fuel, time, or both. Friction within charter companies is also increasing: “fair weather” clauses assume a general, verifiable picture of conditions, but when the route and observed weather don’t match perfectly, owners and charterers can dispute performance claims for months after the voyage ends.
Change of terms and conditions
I remember this first hand from a voyage I commanded from Singapore to Geelong and Port Bonython in August 2017. As we approached the Australian coast we encountered strong waves that made a direct approach too risky to proceed. On the advice of our weather company, we stopped and drifted for 48 hours, enduring extreme conditions, before resuming our journey. The delay resulted in a delay in crude oil discharge at Geelong, disrupting the port’s operating schedule. It was a stark reminder that the final approach to the pier is not something you plan once and forget about.
Conditions off the Australian coast can change quickly, and having someone monitoring these conditions in real time is often the difference between a late but uneventful arrival and a much more costly outcome. This is the commercial reality: schedule reliability is a contractual metric, and gaps between forecast and observed conditions cause downtime penalties, fuel waste, and disputes.
Results of this season
A strong El Niño is not the year to treat weather as a normal planning factor. Travel plans that typically remain the same from departure to arrival may need to be revised frequently as forecasts evolve and ocean conditions change. The instinct in an unpredictable year is to add a buffer to the ETA, slow down and allow for contingency days. This protects against the worst-case scenario, but undermines competitiveness when conditions are favorable and does not so much reduce uncertainty as protect against it.
A better approach is to shorten the decision cycle: rather than sticking to a departure route and speed profile and holding there, operators need forecasts that are updated frequently enough to catch changes in storm tracks and sea conditions before they become costly and make quick decisions to respond to them. This means that routing should be viewed as an ongoing process rather than a one-time plan. El Niño 2026 will not affect every flight equally. Some routes are barely noticeable; others will face real upheaval.
The operators who handle this best will not be the ones who add the most buffer. They would be the ones who kept checking the forecast against what the ocean was actually doing and were willing to change course when they no longer matched.
