Four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka knocked out top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round of Wimbledon on Sunday, setting up a quarterfinal match with No. 10 Karolina Muchova.
This is the seventh meeting between Osaka and Muchova in their careers, having split their first six matches 3-3, with Osaka winning two of their three Grand Slam matches at home.
The No. 14 player in the world, Osaka had never made it past the third round at Wimbledon until this year’s tournament, and she did so in dominant fashion. The 28-year-old has not dropped a set and is considered a slight favorite by bookmakers heading into Tuesday.
Muchova, meanwhile, returned to the Wimbledon quarter-finals for the first time since 2021 after four straight first-round exits. Which of these two stars will take advantage in 2026 with a trip to the semi-finals on the line?
Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s journey in this tournament and my prediction for this quarter-final match.
Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova Odds and Totals
Odds via DraftKings bookmaker
Money line
- Naomi Osaka: -121
- Karolina Muchova: +100
General
- 23.5 (Over -115/Under -130)
Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova How to watch
- Date: Tuesday, July 7
- Time: 10:00 am EST.
- How to watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: history and performance at Wimbledon
Naomi Osaka
A four-time Grand Slam winner, Osaka has not had the same success on grass as she has on hard courts during her career, but that appears to be changing at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in 2026.
The 28-year-old has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon, but she advanced to the quarter-finals after defeating Sabalenka in the fourth round.
Osaka did not drop a single set in this tournament and was forced to play only one tiebreaker (against Sabalenka). There is no doubt that she is at her peak, which makes this a very intriguing match.
Osaka and Muchova play each other 3–3 all the time, although Muchova won their last meeting in 2026 at the Bad Homburg Open after Osaka was forced to retire in the second set. This is the last time these two met on the grass.
There is a rich Grand Slam history between Osaka and Muchova, with Osaka winning the 2025 Australian Open and 2025 US Open and Muchova winning a match at the 2024 US Open.
Karolina Muchova
Muchova reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2019 and 2021, but she has exited the tournament in the first round in each of the last four years. This quarter-final run is therefore an important step forward for the 29-year-old as she aims to return to the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time since the 2024 US Open.
Muchova won her first three matches in a row and then went the distance against Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round, winning 7-5, 5-7, 6-3. Her win over Osaka at the Bad Homburg Open is certainly intriguing when it comes to this match as it is the only time the two have met on grass and Muchova dominated the first set 6-1 before Osaka was forced to retire.
Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova Prediction and selection
There are definitely some concerns about Osaka’s game on grass – especially after Muchova has already handled it once this year – but I can’t look past what she’s done over four rounds at this tournament.
Osaka cruised through the first three rounds before beating Sabalenka 6-2, 7-6 on Sunday, an exclamation point on her performance as she truly returns to the national stage in 2024.
There is no doubt that Osaka can win this tournament and Muchova has not performed well at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in recent years.
Both of these players win at least 75 percent of their serves in 2026, but Osaka was excellent in the return games, winning over 47 percent of her break points.
There may be some benefit to Muchova being an underdog on grass, but I can’t bring myself to overshadow Osaka after she eliminated the No. 1 ranked player in such dominant fashion.
I think there is a real argument that Osaka should lose this tournament and I will take her to the semi-finals.
Choice: Osaka Moneyline (-121 on DraftKings)
Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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