Gilas Pilipinas enters the third window of Asian qualifying for the 2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup with little room for error.
Facing a pair of tough away matches against Australia and New Zealand in Perth, Western Australia, the Philippines find themselves in a position where their World Cup hopes could be decided in the next two games.
In the last part of the series, we will look at how Gilas can qualify for the 2027 FIBA Basketball World Cup.
Head coach Tim Cone openly acknowledged what the Philippine team needs to achieve in Australia when he spoke at an open training session at the Filoil EcoOil Center on June 22.
“Right now, if we don’t win one of the next two games, we have a very small margin of error going into the next round,” he said.
“It’s almost like we’re going to have to win the next round.”
And as the pressure mounts, the conversation turns to the simplest question: what does Gilas need to get out of these two games, and how will each possible outcome affect the path forward?
Decisive match against Tall Blacks
Gilas has a 2-2 record heading into the third qualifying window and has already secured a place in the second round, Group E. But simply advancing is only half the battle. The results of the first round are saved, so every remaining game is critical to building a favorable position before the crossover stage.
Group C, which will include Gilas, is already preparing for a difficult climb. Jordan sit at the top of the table with an unbeaten 4-0 record, ahead of Iran (3-1), with both teams having two games to play this window. The Philippines cannot afford to lose any more ground before facing these regional heavyweights.
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Australia are expected to finish with a 6-0 win in the first round, so Gilas’ July 3 clash against New Zealand (also 2-2) could have the biggest impact out of the window. The Tall Blacks are also favored to beat Guam for their third win, meaning an away triumph for the Philippines would see the team level with New Zealand in the standings heading into the second round rather than being chased from behind.
Gilas narrowly lost to New Zealand in Manila in the second window, absorbing a heartbreaking 69-66 defeat after leading for some of the contest. Besides avenging that defeat, a win would give the Philippines a decisive head-to-head result over a direct rival for one of the qualifying spots; A defeat would put Cone’s team in jeopardy in the final three qualifying windows.
Gilas is the best team to finish in fourth place?
At the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup Asian Qualifiers, Gilas booked their second consecutive World Cup berth as the top fourth-placed team in the two second round groups and needed positive results elsewhere before getting their ticket. After automatically qualifying as host nation in 2023, the Philippines could be given the opportunity to follow the same path in its bid for a fourth consecutive World Cup appearance.
The problem is that Gilas is already playing from behind. With Australia expected to have a perfect record in Group E and Jordan and Iran also expected to make it to the second round at the top of the standings, the Philippines cannot afford to dig themselves into a deeper hole ahead of the crossover stage.
If Gilas finishes this window with a 2-4 record, climbing even to fourth place in Group E will be a tough task as the team may have to contend with four teams with a best 4-2 record. In this scenario, the Philippines would likely have to top New Zealand and also bounce back against Jordan or Iran – or both – in the final three qualifying windows.
The 3-3 position after the first round makes the Philippines much more competitive. Splitting that window with a win over New Zealand will keep Gilas within striking distance of the top four in Group E and maintain a realistic chance of climbing the standings in the final six games. Even in this case, securing a ticket to the World Cup will not be easy.
If the top three spots in Group E go to Australia, Jordan and Iran, Gilas could once again find themselves in contention for a top-four finish in the two second-round groups. This will require not only taking care of business in the remaining games, but also hoping for favorable developments in Group F, in which Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Japan, China and South Korea will likely be looking for three to five wins after this window.
The Philippines has been successful down this path before, but it leaves much less room for error than simply finishing in the top three.