Gas networks on the verge of collapse
Reiche’s plan failed due to reality
Updated July 6, 2026 – 6:59 am.Reading time: 3 min.
Economics Minister Katerina Reiche (CDU): Your building modernization law is intended to give green gases a chance. (Source: IMAGO/Didem Mente/imago)
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The “biological ladder” provided for by the Building Modernization Act will not save the German gas networks from closure. Here’s what the new calculations show.
The summary of the brief study is clear: “Current price forecasts for electricity and biomethane show that the operation of gas heating systems and gas networks poses significant economic risks until 2045 at the latest,” writes the Fraunhofer Institute for Research in Manufacturing Engineering and Applied Materials IFAM. “High utilization of gas networks in residential areas and therefore their maintenance is unlikely.”
A short study, available exclusively for t-online, explores the expected development of gas heating systems in Germany. thanks to the new features of the Building Modernization Act (GModG). The law allows owners to install new oil and gas heating systems again.provided that from 2029 they add increasing amounts of clean fuel. For gas heating systems this is usually biomethane, as hydrogen is difficult to obtain and therefore expensive. Biomethane is obtained from biological waste, such as agriculture..
Gas heating labeled natural gas biogas (installation). (Source: IMAGO/Frank Hörmann/SVEN SIMON/imago)
Organic ladder and green gas quota
The federal government wants to continue to allow the installation of new oil and gas heating systems. However, anyone who installs a new fossil fuel heating system after the law comes into force must sign a so-called “Organic Ladder” full. This is done so that the owner adds an increasing proportion of environmentally friendly gases or heating oil. The owner enters into a contract with the oil or gas supplier and is inspected by a chimney sweep. From 2029, the share of impurities should be ten percent, from 2030 – 15 percent, from 2035 – 30 percent, and from 2040 – 60 percent. More information about organic stairs can be found here.
In addition, you should Quote from Grungas will be implemented, which will be relevant for existing heating systems. This aims to ensure that energy suppliers gradually supply more green gas to the existing network. However, no details about this are known yet.
Gas heating with biomethane can cost up to 4,600 euros per year.
But according to an analysis by the Environment Institute’s IFAM Munich has been introduced, biomethane is likely to be significantly more expensive until 2045 than the electricity required to run a heat pump. This is evidenced by several forecasts, although the spread is wide: the minimum price is 7.6 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), the maximum is 23 cents/kWh. For a household with an average gas consumption of 20,000 kWh per year, the costs will range from 1,520 to 4,600 euros. IFAM calculated that the median value of all forecasts would be 12.8 cents/kWh, amounting to €2,560 per year.
According to the researchers, most gas heating users will not be willing to pay such a sum, especially because Heat pump operating costs significantly lower – even with inefficient operation. In 2045, a household with an annual consumption of 15,000 kWh is likely to save more than €1,000 per year if it chooses a heat pump instead of biomethane heating.
Result: gas networks are gradually being switched off.
For this reason, according to Fraunhofer researchers, gas consumption is likely to decline markedly by 2045 – until it becomes unprofitable for the network operator to maintain the network. The only thing that remains to be seen is when operators will come to that conclusion. If an outage is announced too late, the likelihood increases that the network operator will have to invest more money in its gas network. From a researcher’s point of view, this should be avoided.
Study author Martin Palovic explains that if the number of customers falls, gas network operators will no longer be able to spread their costs across enough shoulders because it will simply become too expensive. “The combination of expensive biogas and increasingly high network tariffs will be unaffordable for most people. Therefore, the organic ladder and green gas quotas lead to nowhere.” Therefore, municipalities should not hesitate to prepare for decommissioning now to save costs in the long term.