No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner will take on No. 2 Alexander Zverev on Sunday with the Wimbledon title on the line. But despite the close rankings, Sinner has the advantage on paper: he is the defending champion and has dominated Zverev in their matches over the past few years.
But Zverev won his first major title at the French Open just a month ago. Can this momentum help him win another Grand Slam trophy? Our specialists understand this.
What can Sinner do to beat Zverev?
D’Arcy Man: Since Sinner has beaten Zverev in their last nine meetings (over almost three years), he doesn’t have to look far for clues on what to do. And, as evidenced by his clinical victory over Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals, Sinner really does everything well. He won 88% of his first serve points, saved (with an ace) the only break point he faced, dominated from the baseline and simply never gave Djokovic a chance to get back into the match.
Sinner was calm and collected, without the slightest sign of nervousness. If he can play anywhere close to that level against a player with less experience on grass and on the sport’s biggest stage, Sinner should have no problem winning his second straight All England Club title.
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Bill Connelly: Looks like he just needs to remember he’s playing Zverev. He won nine matches in a row and 14 sets in a row in the series. In the last two meetings, he didn’t even use break points, and they were on clay!
This is probably where the biggest advantage lies: Zverev couldn’t break his serve at all, and his service against Djokovic in the semi-finals was incredible: 16 aces in three sets with zero double faults, 88% of first serve points won and 61% of second serve points won. If he continues like this, he will force Zverev to win three tiebreakers to have a chance.
Nate Saunders: If Sinner even comes close to replicating the level of play he showed against Djokovic, he will be well on his way to retaining his title. It is unknown whether it was a fully prepared Djokovic, but it was still Djokovic – and Sinner took him apart. Sinner controls the pace of the match like no one else, and if he frustrates Zverev, who is running around the court, it is easy to imagine the match quickly going in his favor.
If Sinner even comes close to replicating the level of play he showed against Novak Djokovic, he’ll be well on his way to retaining his title. Whether it was a fully prepared Djokovic is unknown, but it was still Djokovic – and Sinner dismantled him. Sinner controls the tempo of the match like no one else, and if he frustrates Zverev, who is running around the court, it is easy to imagine the game quickly going in his favor.
Simon Cumbers: Keep doing what he did, not only here at Wimbledon, but against Zverev in general. Sinners has won their last nine meetings, the last six of them in straight sets. If he plays anywhere near as good as he did against Djokovic, he’s bound to win. If necessary, he can get to the net when Zverev is standing deep, and the drop shot will also be useful.
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Sinner beats Djokovic in straight sets to reach Wimbledon final
What can Zverev do to beat Sinner?
Maine: It will not be an easy task for Zverev and he will need to be near perfect to claim Sunday’s victory. But this is the first time these two have played since Zverev finally became major champion, and that confidence and momentum should help – and could ease some of the emotional toll and anxiety, especially early on.
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Not to mention, finally overcoming the “best to never win a Grand Slam” moniker could help him play more freely with nothing to lose. Zverev has become more aggressive on the court, especially during this breakout on grass, and he has an impressive first serve that can be a powerful factor. He’ll just have to put it all together and hope Sinner isn’t in the best shape to have a chance.
Connelly: Keep up the superhuman service first and second. In his last two victories at this tournament, Zverev a) completed his first serve over 70% of the time and b) won over 70% of his points on his second serve.
He can’t afford any changes to the way Sinner serves (and the way he has failed to solve Sinner’s serve in recent years), so he will have to match Sinner, hold for hold. And perhaps he is capable of this.
Saunders: This is a match between two players with fast serves – Zverev needs his serves to be perfect from the very beginning of the match. If he can show the aggression he has played with throughout the tournament, limiting the exchanges between them and disrupting Sinner’s rhythm, that will be a good start.
The key will be to stop Sinner from controlling the situation from the baseline. Zverev has looked confident throughout the tournament and his impressive performance against Taylor Fritz should be the template for this final – although it’s hard to find any template for Sinner when he’s at his best.
Chambers: If Zverev wants to win, he will have to stand closer to Sinner’s serve than he usually does. If he gives up too much ground, Sinner will have too many options. He also needs to serve as well as he has done throughout the tournament, if not better. And he needs to continue to be aggressive, especially on his forehand.
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Zverev reached his first Wimbledon final after winning in straight sets
Who will win?
Maine: Sinner and I don’t think it will be close. As in their previous Grand Slam final meeting at the Australian Open last year, Sinner would win this meeting in straight sets to claim his fifth major title.
Connelly: Sinner in four sets. I really can’t get over “14 sets in a row in a series.” Zverev’s form is strong enough that we can say he wins the tiebreaker in the second or third set, but Sinner is still defending his crown.
Saunders: It must be Sinner – and I was going to say it’s in straight sets, like it was in the Australian Open final. But Zverev could surprise us and step up his game for this big event, especially now that he has given up the MVP title without a major title. However, in these two weeks there was little to suggest that Sinner could be easily defeated, except perhaps for a few sluggish moments in the first week. Out of compassion, I’ll say that Zverev will get the set, but only because he lived up to his number two seed at this tournament. But the emphasis there is on the word “mercifully.”