El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97 percent chance it will persist until early spring 2027, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.
“There is an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in October-December, which would be one of the largest El Niño events in history since 1950,” the US forecaster added.
El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs naturally when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to accumulate in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This typically results in rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns, causing drought in some regions and heavy rain in others.
Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist with Vaisala Weather, said El Niño typically results in cooler, wetter conditions in the Midwest during the late summer months, favorable for corn and soybeans during their moisture-sensitive reproductive phases, and thus a higher likelihood of increased yields and production for both crops.
A strong or super-strong El Niño event is expected to form in the eastern Pacific Ocean this summer and fall, raising the risks of extreme weather events such as floods and heat waves across China this year and next, state news agency Xinhua reported, citing forecasts from the National Climate Center.
“El Niño episodes typically result in a weakened monsoon season in India, and monsoon rainfall is currently 40 percent below the long-term average. Thus, negative impacts on summer crops are likely,” Keeney said.
India’s monsoon over the next two weeks is expected to bring below-average rainfall to the country’s western and southern regions, potentially slowing the planting of cotton, soybeans and corn, two senior meteorology officials said.
The UN weather agency last week raised its forecast for the rapid occurrence of a strong El Niño in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon could lead to a rise in global temperatures.