SOUTHPORT, England – Sam Burns climbed to the top of the leaderboard on Moving Day at the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale on Saturday.
Burns, who is bidding for his first major championship, will hold a two-stroke lead over New Zealand’s Ryan Fox and South Korean Si Woo Kim.
Each of the last 11 Open Championship winners were at least four strokes away from the final round. And each of the last 25 golfers to lift the Claret Jug finished in the top 10 by Sunday.
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After falling short at the U.S. Open last month at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island, Burns is hoping to seal the deal this time.
“Ultimately it comes down to the fact that I can’t control what other people do,” Burns said after finishing Saturday with a 5-under 65. “Someone will come out and play great golf tomorrow, maybe a few people. It’s almost a given. This happens every week.”
“So, I’ll have to do the same. I’ll have to go out and act. “At the end of the day, no matter what happens, I know I can accept the outcome and life will go on.”
Here’s a look at the top contenders to win the Claret Jug on Sunday:
Sam Burns (under 10 years old)
Sam Burns is playing in the third round of the Open Championship. Stuart Kerr/R&A/R&A via Getty Images
Why he will win: Burns is one of the best golfers in the world who has yet to win a major. After struggling hard in the big four early in his career, Burns has finished in the top ten in four of his last nine.
Burns has been a ball-striking machine this week. He hit 17 of 18 greens on Saturday and is over six strokes into 54 holes.
Plus, Burns appears to be playing with house money. With the impending birth of his daughter Belle, he was unsure whether he would be able to play at The Open this week. His second child was born on July 3, and his wife Caroline helped him fly across the pond to the final major of the season.
After finishing the first round with three bogeys in a row, exchanging text messages with his wife was exactly what Burns needed.
He came out Friday and shot an 8-under 62, good for the low round of a major championship.
“Yeah, I really think she was the one who gave me the support that I needed and kind of a kick in the butt,” Burns said.
Why he won’t win: Over the past two years, Burns has come agonizingly close to winning a major a couple of times, only to fall short.
At last month’s US Open, he started the final round seven strokes behind leader Wyndham Clarke and nearly caught him. His birdie putt on the 18th hole missed by half an inch, sending Burns to his knees.
Burns had the 54-hole lead heading into the final round of the 2024 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, but tied for seventh place due to heavy rain after being denied a water reset on the 15th hole.
Ryan Fox (under 8 years old)
Why he will win: New Zealand’s Fox was back in contention on Saturday, becoming the eighth golfer (and third this week) to shoot a 62 in a major championship round, the lowest score in history.
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Ryan Fox on the main record in one round: “I didn’t think it would be 62”
Playing in favorable conditions with virtually no wind on Saturday morning, Fox hit 15 of 18 greens and needed just 25 putts. He made 140 feet of putts, making nine birdies and one bogey.
Fox is a 19-time global winner and has a winning track record. Last year he edged out Harry Higgs and Mackenzie Hughes in the playoffs to win the OneFlight Myrtle Beach Classic. A month later, he outlasted Burns to win again in the RBC Canadian Open playoffs.
Fox said Saturday that he will remain aggressive on Sunday as he tries to win his first major.
“Just pick your shots and try to hit them,” Fox said. “In terms of the game, nothing changes. I played with a pretty aggressive strategy all day, did the same thing yesterday and played pretty decently. So I’ll try to do the same thing tomorrow and see what happens.”
Why he won’t: On Saturday morning he scored 62 in favorable conditions when the wind was not blowing and there was a better chance of scoring. Will it be as good when the wind changes and blows in the afternoon?
Si Woo Kim (under 8 years old)
Why he will win: While much of the week’s attention was focused on Bryson DeChambeau and the trio of athletes who scored 62 points, Kim quietly snuck onto the leaderboard with back-to-back 67 points.
Kim, ranked No. 21 in the Official World Golf Ranking, has not won a PGA Tour event in nearly three years. But he’s playing some of the best golf of his career, with 11 top-25 finishes in 19 starts. He finished second in both the Farmers Insurance Open and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Kim is one of the best iron players on tour; he ranks third in hits allowed: approach (.732). According to this statistic, he is gaining about 4½ hits this week.
Why he won’t win: Can Kim handle the pressure? He ranked 99th on tour in strokes gained: putts (-0.094) entering the week, but his putter was red hot at Royal Birkdale. Over the first three rounds, he averaged 3.70 strokes on the grass.
Until this week, Kim wasn’t a great communications player. He had one top-25 finish in seven starts at The Open and had more putts missed (four) than putts made (three).
Why he will win: Few expect Gerard to lift the claret jug on Sunday, so perhaps he can continue to fly under the radar.
In just his second full season on the PGA Tour, Gerard has shown many signs of a breakthrough. He won the 2025 Barracuda Championship and finished runner-up three times this season. He lost in a playoff to JT Poston at Memorial on June 4.
Gerard doesn’t have much experience with links, but Royal Birkdale has suited him well so far.
“A lot of people told me that before I came here last year,” Gerard said. “I just feel comfortable hitting shots in the air, hitting different windows, moving the ball both ways when I need to, especially on the greens.
“I felt pretty good about the way we were doing things so far, but yeah, there’s still a lot of golf to be played and it won’t be easy tomorrow.”
Why he won’t win: History does not favor his victories. Only 10 golfers have won The Open in their first start, including Ben Curtis in 2003 and Collin Morikawa in 2021.
Lucas Herbert is playing in the third round of the Open Championship. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Why he will win: Herbert is considered one of the best putters in the game, and that was evident when he joined Burns on Friday with a team-high 8-under 62. He narrowly missed the cut on the 18th, which would have given him the only record of 61.
Herbert came back down to earth with a 1-over 71 on Saturday. But with birdies on Nos. 15 and 16, he hit one of the best shots of the tournament on the par-5 17th. After receiving a one-time penalty for an unplayable lie, he chipped his third putt, a blind putt over the dune, to 20½ feet and two-putted for par.
He warmed up a bit as he won the LIV golf tournament on May 10 in Potomac Falls, Virginia.
Why he won’t win: Herbert is not in the top 10 at a major. He hasn’t made a cut in a tournament since finishing 43rd at the 2024 PGA Championship.
Why he will win: Even at 26, Oberg is arguably one of the most talented golfers in the top 10 heading into the final round, even if he has just two PGA Tour victories to his name. Other golfers are jealous of his easy swing and laid-back demeanor, as calm as the wind on the Irish Sea this week.
Oberg didn’t handle anything this week. He scores strokes off the tee (2.31), approach (1.36), around the green (2.94) and putting (1.34).
Why he won’t win: Can it close? At the Players Championship in March, Oberg took a three-shot lead into the final round at TPC Sawgrass. He played well up front on Sunday, but he then hit the ball into the water at numbers 11 and 12, resulting in bogey and double bogey respectively, putting him out of contention. He finished the round with a 4-over 76 and finished in fifth place at 9-under.
While his short game was very good this week, it is usually his biggest weakness. Will he continue to hold on?
Bryson DeChambeau (6 under)
Bryson DeChambeau during the third round of the Open Championship. Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Why he will win: DeChambeau has an England-sized chip on his shoulder after the R&A assessed him a two-stroke penalty for improving his swing trajectory before taking his second shot on the fifth hole in the second round on Friday.
Rory McIlroy didn’t mince words when talking about DeChambeau on Saturday.
Despite all the odds and distractions, DeChambeau finished with a 1-under 69 on Saturday.
He would probably like nothing more than to tie it to the R&A suits, McIlroy and the traditional golf world, which have not supported his efforts to grow the game through YouTube and LIV Golf.
Why he won’t: With too many distractions, his aggressive game plan backfires and he loses to the winner by one point.
Why he will win: This will be the story of the greatest underdog and one of the most remarkable victories in major championship history.
Suber had never even been to Europe until he arrived in England on Saturday. He had never played on a links course before his first practice round at Royal Birkdale. However, he was the first round leader after shooting a 65 and did enough to stay within striking distance.
Why he won’t win: For the reasons stated above.
Why he will win: Fleetwood, who grew up in Southport, will have the whole of England cheering on him on Sunday. An English golfer has not won The Open since Nick Faldo won his third Claret Jug in 1992. An English golfer has not won on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969.
Fleetwood is England’s only chance of ending their long drought after Aaron Rye, Justin Rose and Matt Fitzpatrick missed selection and Daniel Brown (4 under), Matt Wallace (2 under), Alex Fitzpatrick (1 under) and Tyrrell Hutton (1 under) all disappeared on Saturday.
Fleetwood probably won’t win, but he’ll have nothing to lose on Sunday.
“There’s no pressure on me at all other than my own expectations, and it’s certainly nice that the city has so much faith in me and wants me to succeed,” Fleetwood said. “I couldn’t ask for more from thousands and thousands of people. No, I don’t feel pressure. This week I felt nervousness, excitement and adrenaline, but these are my own expectations.”
Why he won’t win: He’s too far behind and there are too many great golfers ahead of him.