Did the Mariners get any momentum last week? I bet. Did they spend it all at once? Certainly. With the loss in Miami, Seattle finds itself back at .500 and a half game behind the Rangers in the AL West. Just a year ago, the M’s overcame adversity en route to their final series before the All-Star break against the best team in the American League. In one of the biggest turning points of the season, they overtook the Tigers and headed into the mid-season break on a high note. Now they have the same opportunity in Tampa Bay.
The Rays have been one of the biggest surprises in the AL this year. After back-to-back fourth-place finishes in the Alabama East in 2024 and ’25, it seemed like the competitive window Tampa Bay had been building since ’19 had slammed shut. Instead, they lead their division with the best record in the AL. They’re definitely a little short on skis—they beat their Pythagoras record by five games and the Base Runs record by six games—but the wins they’ve had already mean they’re all but guaranteed a postseason spot thanks to a mediocre playoff field behind them.
The Rays’ top three players carry most of the load. Junior Caminero has been nuclear recently, hitting 12 home runs over his last 16 games. He is one of the most dangerous young power hitters in the game, and this hot streak has put him in the middle of the AL MVP race. Yandy Diaz is one of the few familiar names making up this lineup. He is currently the longest-tenured Ray and is in the midst of his best offensive season since 2023. Jonathan Aranda is built from the same mold as Diaz: a compact hitter designed for hard line drive contact and a reliable approach to the plate. The rest of the roster is filled with players and squads with flexible roles that force opponents into awkward matchups throughout the game.
It feels like Nick Martinez is the Rays’ most spiritual player who didn’t actually play for Tampa Bay until this year. Over the last four years, he has excelled as a part-time starter, part-time leadoff man, and even seen some high-performance work from time to time. He was firm no matter what role he played. That’s the kind of flexibility the Rays crave, even though they have inserted him as a full-time starter outside of their rotation this year. This year he made a strange compromise, trying to create much weaker contact rather than swings and misses; he emphasized the sinker over the four-seamer and increased the use of his fantasy changeup. The fundamentals are there—his 2.61 ERA is third-best in the AL—but all of his peripherals scream regression.
Last July, the acquisition of Griffin Jax was a strange development at the trade deadline. The Rays didn’t have the option to buy, but they traded Taj Bradley for Jax, who was one of the best players in baseball at the time. Jax was competing for a pitching role with the Rays, and the team decided to turn him into a starter in May. It’s not the worst idea in the world; Jax has a wide repertoire that doesn’t lend itself to a traditional power pitcher. It all worked out pretty well despite the weird timing of it all. In 13 starts and 56 IP, he has a 2.89 ERA, 3.99 FIP and 3.87 K/BB out of the rotation.
The Rays were able to use Nick Martinez in their starting rotation because they already had a pitcher filling Martinez’s traditional role: part-time starter, part-time swingman, part-time high-leverage arm. Ian Seymour started last year in the bullpen, but a short but successful stint as a starter ended the season. Tampa Bay brought him back to the bullpen to start this year, and he eventually worked his way into the majors for a time. He has been working as a starter for the past month in what may be his most successful role to date. Over his last six appearances, he has allowed just 10 runs in 30.1 innings with an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.5.
Despite a 13-1 loss on Wednesday, the Rangers earned a series win over the Angels yesterday. This returned them to first place in the division. The Astros lost the series to the Nationals earlier this week, although they are still in the game and halfway out of the Wild Card race. The two Texas teams will meet this weekend in Arlington. Athletics continues to fall in the standings; They were swept by the Tigers this week and have lost six in a row and 14 of their last 17. They head to Chicago to face the White Sox before the All-Star break.