Will Mélenchon once again become the first refuge of the left? The show of force organized by Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 7 June in Saint-Denis for his first meeting was not only aimed at launching his presidential campaign. It also aimed to send a clear message to everyone on the left: “The primaries are over.” The leader of La France insoumise intends to lead the presidential battle as the favorite of his camp. The results of the latest Odox-Mascaret barometer seem to confirm his point. Jean-Luc Mélenchon stands out today as the most popular political figure on the left. He collects Membership rating 49% or seven points higher like Francois Hollande and Francois Ruffin, and ten points ahead on Raphael Glucksmann (Public Square).
This progress is all the more significant given that just over a year ago, in May 2025, the rebel leader only occupied sixth place this rating. Then he was late for nine points about Francois Ruffin and September points about Raphael Glucksmann and Francois Hollande. Thus, in twelve months, Jean-Luc Mélenchon restored almost Dicks glasses among supporters of leftist views.
Growth supported by voting intentions
A rebel leader’s progress is no longer limited by popularity metrics. This is also reflected in voting intentions in presidential elections. Already last month, the Odoxa-Mascaret barometer recorded an impressive rebalancing. While Edouard Philippe fell by four points and dropped to 17%Jean-Luc Mélenchon scored four points at the same time, reaching 16% and returning shoulder to shoulder with the former Macronist prime minister. At the same time, the gap with Raphael Glucksmann widened. Although they were still separated by just two points in the spring, the Place publique leader is now credited with 11% of the vote, or five points less than Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
For Gael Slimane, president of Odoxa, this development is not something anecdotal. “After announcing his candidacy and media invitations, the rebel leader manages to translate into our voting intentions the increase we have seen in our left-wing membership rankings. “A dynamic that confirms, he says, that the campaign has entered a new phase, with the main candidates of each “camp” beginning to establish themselves on a permanent basis.
The left’s favorite candidate…despite still very high levels of opposition
Nevertheless, the Jean-Luc Mélenchon paradox remains intact. Among all the French, the leader of La France insoumise remains the most rejected political figure. Next to seven in ten French (69%) they say that they feel dislike for him, but he only takes 18ᵉ ranking place total number of political figures in terms of membership, only 16% opinions are favorable.
But this weakness in general opinion contrasts sharply with his influence within his own camp. “The presidential elections are approaching, and the champions of each camp are beginning to make themselves known. On the left flank, Jean-Luc Mélenchon clearly stands out,” says Gaël Slimane. “The rebel leader may still be the figure most rejected by all of France, but he stands out as the number one supporter of all left-wing parties with an approval rating of 49%.”
As the 2027 presidential elections approach, major political centers appear to be increasingly structured around their dominant figures. On the left, Odox-Mascare’s latest results confirm that Jean-Luc Mélenchon has regained the lead in his camp for now.