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Spain’s 1-0 win on Friday night may have put a damper on several teams’ World Cup plans.
Victory over Uruguay gave Spain the Group H title, meaning it will play the winner of Saturday night’s final group stage match between Austria and Algeria.
Spain is a football power, ranked as the third-best FIFA program in the world, and will be clear favorites ahead of both Austria (22nd) and Algeria (29th).
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Austria and Algeria may even win, if not win, the last game of the group stage. (Dean Mukhtaropoulos, Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)
That’s why both teams can win if they don’t win on Saturday night.
We have already mentioned that Spain will face the winner of the match, who finished second in Group J. Thus, for Algeria, a draw is the best case scenario.
A draw would see Algeria earn a place in the knockout stages by finishing third in Group J and face Belgium, Switzerland, England or Ghana. However, defeat means almost certain elimination, so you should proceed with caution.
His path will be much clearer when he takes the field at 10:00 pm ET in Kansas City, but as of now, The Athletic gives Algeria less than a 1% chance of taking the lead with a loss. If previous games go in his favor early, the probability only jumps to 9%.
Riyad Mahrez and the Algerian starting lineup pose before the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match against Jordan at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California, June 22, 2026. (Erin Chang/ISI Photos)
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The situation in Austria is a little different because defeat does not kill it completely. But since a win or draw means a meeting with Spain, she can simply hope for defeat and go through tiebreakers, which, again, will become clearer as the day goes on.
At the time of publication, Austria had a 38% chance of moving ahead with a loss. That percentage will increase to 65% if Ghana wins at 5:00 pm ET, and then to 72% if Uzbekistan win or draw against DR Congo at 7:30 pm ET.
However, if Ghana loses or plays Croatia and then beats DR Congo, Austria will be eliminated with a defeat. So she will have to accept her fate, try to win or draw and worry about Spain later.
Austria fans cheer at Dallas Stadium during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match between Argentina and Austria on June 22, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. (Torbjorn Tande/DeFodi Images)
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Brief summary: Algeria wants to draw because a win means a meeting with Spain, and a defeat is almost equivalent to elimination. Austria may have to reluctantly face the music rather than rely on tiebreakers, but its true interest, and perhaps its level of effort in the game, will be known by 10 p.m. ET.
All this means that Algeria deliberately scored an own goal late in their favor, it is possible.
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