A second tropical depression has formed in the northeastern Gulf and is expected to bring heavy rain and tropical storm gusts to the northern and eastern Gulf Coast in the coming days.
The second tropical depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm tonight or Monday, at which point it will be named Tropical Storm Bertha.
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A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly into the system on Sunday to gather information about winds, pressure and weather conditions around it.
Impact:
Precipitation: Total area spread is 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches possible in the strongest thunderstorms. (Rain forecast map below.)
Storm surge: Water levels could rise 1 to 3 feet above normal along the coast of Florida’s Big Bend region, from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzki.
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast, including wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River in the west to the Florida-Alabama border. Tropical storm conditions are possible in these locations over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Additionally, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding as the bands of tropical rain associated with the Second Tropical Depression move onshore while the center of the system remains offshore. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of up to 8 inches from the northeast Gulf Coast to the western peninsula of Florida.
Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is also possible in the Big Bend area of Florida.
Guiding currents are very weak, so the second tropical depression will continue to move slowly to the north-northwest over the next few days. Despite some dry air, wind shear remains lighter, so some additional strengthening is possible as the storm approaches the Gulf Coast in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana by midweek.
More than a month has passed since the said storm hit the Atlantic Ocean basin. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-June and made landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston a few hours later. NOAA predicts a below-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season due to the formation and strengthening of El Niño.