Businessman holding bitcoin as part of a business network, connection to cryptocurrency blockchain, technology and financial investment concept.
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I’m not an eternal bear. I’m not a doomster – and yes, I’ve been calling Bitcoin for a long time.
And it falls.
I called there in 2017, 2021 and 2025 – Forbes has them all if you want to check the calls. Here I am on the record: Bitcoin bull on the way up and bear on the way back down in each case.
I’m not a Bitcoin maxie; I’m a Bitcoin option. Buy while it’s cheap, sell when it’s expensive. I don’t carefully select my calls. I could say that Bitcoin hasn’t risen since 2024, but I won’t. I could say that you would outperform gold and the S&P if you bought them in 2023, but I won’t say that either, because accurate hindsight has no value. I’m playing ballpark and, sorry, I still think it’s going to get worse.
Here’s a diagram that is another close variation of what I said before. The destination map becomes a little clearer as we get closer to where I expect the bottom to be, which is between $30,000 and $40,000.
This is not fate because anything can interfere, but it is a high probability outcome.
Bitcoin chart – are we approaching the bottom?
Photo: ANewFN.com
Bitcoin has many obstacles, not the least of which is its use by US adversaries. Some people get very angry when I point this out, but just half an hour of research will reveal a scam so fascinating that it makes me wonder how the US might eventually change its liberal attitude towards Bitcoin. At the very least, you’d think the US would try – and likely succeed – in eliminating Bitcoin’s biggest use case: its utility for circumventing sanctions and facilitating illicit transactions. Some people deny that this is the case, but it clearly is. Bomb Iran and poof… it will take 25% of the mining hashrate.
Bitcoin, like CryptoPunk NFTs, will never reach zero, but the future could reverse its four-year growth cycle.
But first we need to get to the end of this cycle and watch the next one begin.
Iran, North Korea and Asian slave traders from scam centers will not benefit the future of Bitcoin, but whether they will cause irreparable damage to BTC remains to be seen.
However, if you are not careful about the sting in the tail, it may very well hit you.