“This is cruel. The main models will hint at a possible extraordinary heat wave next week with highs of +45ºC and even other values that I dare not mention,” the words of MeteoBadajoz speak for themselves. The bad news has continued to pile up in recent days.
It is true that “it is advisable to wait for now, but the persistence is such that it is becoming quite possible,” he continued. And he’s right. Let’s see why.
What happened? With AEMET’s weekly forecast indicating warmer than normal temperatures next week, model spread is narrowing. That is, what was possible begins to become a more than plausible scenario.
It’s important now to differentiate between what we know and what we don’t.
What do we know? Today, according to Roberto Granda, there are things we know: that “many areas will again reach temperatures of 38-40 °C” and heat wave thresholds will be “comfortably” exceeded. What we can’t know is the temperature it will reach, where exactly it will affect and how many days it will last.
In fact, these doubts are still so strong that the two main models disagree. While the American GFS has a general and very intense wave, the European GFS concentrates the extreme heat in the eastern half of the peninsula. Be that as it may, it seems that it has completely hooked us.
What can we expect? If forecasts are correct, this extreme heat event will hit a country (and continent) already experiencing an extraordinary summer: it will be the third heat wave in a month, with temperatures in the Mediterranean reaching 26.63°C (2.6 degrees above normal) for the second warmest June since 1961.
In fact, the mortality rate (as estimated by MoMo of the Carlos III Institute of Health) since May 1 would have been 1,682 deaths; in just five days of the second wave there were about 500 of them.
Weren’t we going out into the cold? Just a week ago, the internet was flooded with maps promising “the end of the heatwave” and we explained why they should be read with caution. Now we have confirmation of our words: the 15-day scenario should not be confused with a prediction.
So what now? Now we need to wait for confirmation. In the coming days, the uncertainty will disappear and we will receive confirmation (or exclusion). In previous waves, special notifications arrived approximately four days in advance.
Whatever happens, one thing is clear: summer is looking very bad.
Image | Meteotsel
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