World Cup predictions, semi-finals: France vs. Spain and England vs. Argentina

Welcome to AthleticDaily forecasts for the World Cup.

In this article you will find detailed information about all of today’s games, but with the bonus of friendly competition…

Throughout the tournament we will have one of two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke – with the help of our experts from each of the 48 countries) comparing our football knowledge with different Athletic subscriber every day and “Algo”, a new brilliant algorithm from Athleticwhich will debut in computer mode during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Oh, and there’s a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old boy called Wilfred (whom some of you may remember from last year’s Premier League predictions).

Today our guest subscriber Calvin is from the USA and supports the USMNT, Seattle Sounders and Everton.. Good luck!

If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.

What happened in the 31st round?

Erling Haaland and Norway were sent to England on Saturday, although not without their fair share of controversy.

The bottom line is that England won 2-1 after extra time, with the imperious Jude Bellingham scoring both goals after Andreas Schjelderup had given Norway the lead.

But the Norwegians were angered by England’s opening goal, which came after a Norwegian goal kick appeared to hit an overhead camera wire before falling to Elliot Anderson in the build-up. Adding to the controversy, Torbjörn Heggem’s goal was disallowed via VAR after Haaland struck Anderson for a corner. England could have argued that they were unlucky to have a penalty disallowed after Jed Spence went down in the box, but Bellingham’s brilliance saw them through to the final four.

With four of our five predictors picking England, and Stanley always being a rogue and going against the grain, the table remained the same as before the last quarter-final later on Saturday (early Sunday in the UK).

Results from July 11, 2026

Lionel Messi was not on the scoresheet for the first time in the fourth match as Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1, also after extra time, to set up a draw with England.

However, the game was not without controversy, with Switzerland’s Brill Embolo sent off after a VAR check for “mistaken identity”. The video clearly shows the striker diving after a tackle from Leandro Paredes. It doesn’t appear that Embolo was mistaken for anyone else, but rather than Paredes being booked, it was Embolo who received a second yellow card and was sent off.

This result, which all Bar Eric followers have been aiming for, leaves the table tense with leader Algo, one pick and one percent ahead of us “Experts” ahead of the last four games of the tournament. That’s all there is to play for.

How do forecasts work?

It’s pretty simple: we’ll give you some information about each game, players to watch, and facts about both teams. Then we will predict the result.

We’ll keep a leaderboard showing how everyone is performing on their predictions (ranked by percentage correct), but we’ll also keep track of “streaks” – the number of predictions each person gets right in a row. These stripes also form an important part AthleticInteractive Soccer Pick’ems feature allowing you to make your own picks for each round.

So come, participate, and check back every day to see how we’re progressing on the leaderboard – and, perhaps more importantly, whether you, the followers, Stanley, or Wilfred beat us.

Or, worst of all, can Algo prove that data and statistics know everything when it comes to forecasting.

Good luck and enjoy!

Forecasts for rounds 32 and 33

France – Spain, semi-final, starts at 15:00 Eastern time, 20:00 Moscow time.

Where to watch: FOX (USA), ITV (UK)

Stripe Risk Factor: 5/5. France look like clear favorites, but Spain were the second best team in the tournament, so if anyone can upset the French, it is Luis de la Fuente’s side.

View rating: 5/5. The two best teams in the tournament are fighting to reach the World Cup finals. Clear your calendar, put your phone on Do Not Disturb mode, and enjoy. It will be impossible to miss.

Sports football experts say: “The most formidable attack of the tournament against the best defensive team in the World Cup. The question is who will come out on top?”

“On paper, France may have had the toughest draw of the quarter-final as they faced a previously impressive Morocco (although the latter were without their best striker, Ismael Saibary, to injury), but they handled it seamlessly, completely nullifying their opponents.

“Whether you’re tired of hearing about the brilliance of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise or not, it’s impossible not to talk about them. However, it would be unfair to suggest that their World Cup hopes rest solely on their shoulders as Didier Deschamps’ backline, led by Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba, has blossomed into the tournament.”

“They will face a Spain side who have conceded their first goal in six games at this World Cup, beating Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-finals. This stable foundation has been built on a solid structure off the ball, but more so in possession. Their ability to control possession and territory, while not always spectacular, is impressive.”

“Spain’s concern is that despite all the possession, their attack is not working as well as they had hoped. Lamin Yamal sprinkled his stardust in a matter of seconds but did not impact games with goals as much as he would have liked.”

Has the moment arrived for Lamine Yamal? (Frederick J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

“Spain don’t have the same attacking burst as they did when they won the European Championship two years ago, but they do have a not-so-secret weapon that Mikel Merino can bring off the bench. He scored the winners in successive knockout rounds, but that in itself shows one of their problems, namely that those two games against stronger opposition (Portugal and then Belgium) were tense because the Spanish didn’t turn dominance into goals.”

Sports football experts: VICTORY FOR FRANCE

Guest subscriber Calvin: SPAIN VICTORY

Six-year-old Wilfred: VICTORY FOR FRANCE

Stanley, the dog: SPAIN VICTORY

Anything: SPAIN VICTORY

Our elections for July 14, 2026

England v Argentina semi-final, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST.

Where to watch: FOX (USA), BBC (UK)

Stripe Risk Factor: 5/5. Both teams have shown the ability to overcome adversity and win even if they don’t play well. Firstly, it will continue until Sunday’s final, but it is very difficult to predict who will emerge victorious from this game.

Our elections for July 15, 2026

View rating: 5/5. Neither team was particularly eye-catching from a stylistic standpoint, but throughout the playoffs they were involved in close, exciting matchups that you won’t be able to look away from. Lionel Messi and Jude Bellingham make this one worth watching on its own.

Sports football experts say: “A team that has its flaws, that has had to dig itself out of several holes and no one can figure out how good they are, but that is led by one of the game’s global superstars and is looking for a way to win. This description applies to both England and Argentina.

“It’s a long-standing and bitter rivalry on and off the pitch. There’s the story of the 1982 Falklands War, but the football narrative is based on memories of Diego Maradona’s Hand of God at the 1986 World Cup or David Beckham’s sending off in 1998.”

“Argentina were unconvincing in the knockout stages, with 3-2 wins over Cape Verde (after extra time) and Egypt before another extra-time win over Switzerland.

England – team of moments — and Jude Bellingham plays a key role in it (Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

“Their campaign was defined by emotion and Messi. They fought for control of games, but whenever they needed a chance, the 39-year-old often appeared – he now has eight goals and two assists. The two teams have not played each other since 2005, meaning England have never faced Messi, who was suspended for it. Stopping him remains the key to limiting Argentina, but doing so is easier said than done.”

Thomas Tuchel described his side’s 2-1 quarter-final win over Norway as “lucky” and it was hard to argue with him as England lacked momentum, dynamism and defensive solidity for much of that game. They weren’t perfect, but they didn’t need to be. Like Argentina, they are a team of moments.

“Fortunately they were able to rely on Bellingham to step up whenever they needed the moment, taking his total for the tournament to six thanks to his brace against Norway. Along with Harry Kane, he was the driving force behind England.”

Sports football experts: ENGLAND VICTORY

Guest subscriber Calvin: ENGLAND VICTORY

Six-year-old Wilfred: VICTORY FOR ARGENTINA

Stanley, the dog: VICTORY FOR ARGENTINA

Anything: ENGLAND VICTORY