Today we kick off the weekend with a full slate of 16 MLB games to choose from. Let’s take a look at where the smart money is leaning for the three matchups using our VSiN MLB betting splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
The White Sox (48-45) dominated last night’s series opener 14-1, traveling as -185 home favorites.
In today’s rematch, the Athletics (41-53) send lefty Gage Jump (3-3, 3.77 ERA) while the White Sox turn to fellow lefty Brian Hudson (3-2, 2.25 ERA).
This line began with the Athletics listed as the road favorite at -115 and the White Sox as the home dog at -105.
Sharps attacked Chicago hard, turning the White Sox from a -105 home dog to a -125 home favorite. In other words, we have seen a sharp movement of the dog-to-favorite line in favor of the Southsiders.
At Circa, Chicago receives 67% of the moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of the moneyline dollars, which is a notable one-sided split in their favor against the desert wiseguys.
Home favorites above .500 after winning at -155 or less, like the White Sox here, are 92-65 (59%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Home favorites priced at -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 110-70 (61%) with an ROI of 11% this season.
Hudson posted a 1.16 ERA at home compared to 3.78 on the road.
Meanwhile, Jump was hit in his last two starts (both losses), allowing 10 earned runs in 7.2 innings (12.50 ERA).
Chicago also has the best bullpen, with an ERA of 4.04 (14th in MLB) compared to 5.26 for the Athletics (last place).
The White Sox are 29-17 (63%) at home this season, the 4th best home record in MLB.
The Athletics are 22-25 (47%) on the road.
The Reds (43-50) won yesterday’s series opener 4-0, entering the field as +100 house dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (54-42) select right-hander Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA) and the Reds select left-hander Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA).
This line began with Chicago listed as the road favorite at -115 and Cincinnati as the home dog at -105.
The public can’t believe this line is so short, and 69% of moneyline bets on DraftKings are heading to the window to back the Cubs.
However, despite Chicago receiving more than two-thirds of the bets, we saw the line flip completely in the Reds’ favor, turning Cincinnati from a -105 home dog to a -115 home favorite.
This signals a sharp move in the dog-to-favorite back line in Cincinnati, as the line has shifted in favor of the Reds despite criticism from the Cubs crowd.
On DraftKings, the Reds are getting just 31% of the moneyline bets and 44% of the moneyline dollars, which is a stark contrast in the “low bets, higher dollars” bets in favor of the home team.
Favorites with a buy price below .500 and an opponent with a sell price above .500, like the Reds here, are 55-30 (65%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Assad posted a 5.90 ERA on the road compared to 2.30 at home.
Meanwhile, Lodolo has been pitching well of late, allowing just 1 earned run in 15 innings in his last three starts (0.60 ERA).
The Cardinals (49-44) won Game 1 of yesterday’s series 2-1, earning a +135 home dog.
In tonight’s rematch, the Braves (54-39) start right-hander Reinaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.18 ERA) and the Cardinals take out left-hander Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 5.34 ERA).
This line began with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and St. Louis as the home dog at -105.
The public is betting on cheap prices on the Braves, with 80% of DraftKings bets on Atlanta.
However, despite this lopsided support, we saw the line from the Braves fall away (-115 to -110). This signals a sharp swing in the Cardinals’ favor (-105 to -110) as the line has moved in their favor despite the overwhelming public love for Atlanta.
In other words, the Cardinals’ sharp money took this game to its peak.
On DraftKings, the Cardinals receive only 20% of the moneyline bets but 75% of the moneyline dollars, which represents a massive, sharp “lower bets, higher dollars” split among opponents in their favor.
When the line moves in their favor, the Cardinals go 20-12 (63%) with a 23% ROI in that second, which is the second-best “line movement” team in MLB.