U.S. models are calling for heat in parts of the Western High Plains through the end of next week and then through the weekend. In contrast, the European model is allowing some of that heat to spread through the Corn Belt, bringing 90-degree temperatures back into the Midwest and Northeast like we saw last week. It even has the potential to raise temperatures up to 100 degrees in areas like Michigan and New York, while keeping the heat in the Northern Plains and spreading it south into the Central Plains. Of the two corn pollination camps, the European model is more worrisome, but does it make sense?
A quick look at the models shows the same setup, but one key subtle difference results in about a 10-15 degree difference across the entire Corn Belt. This main difference between the two models is not necessarily related to overheating. Instead, it depends on how these models view the low of the upper level, which is set to move into eastern Canada and the northeastern US mid-next week, around July 14-15. American patterns with this trough are much stronger and deeper than the European ones, resulting in a wider extension of the ridge but limiting its coverage to the Plains, where temperatures will continue to be warm, with plenty of 90s and some potential in the 100s from Montana to Texas. Meanwhile, a weaker European pattern is allowing the ridge to spread across much of the U.S., causing the heat to spread more widely. But which is more likely to be correct?
Meteorologists at DTN are taking a closer look at the American image. The European model overheated over the summer, unable to grasp how deep some of the troughs that passed through the country would be, missing the softer air inside them and spreading heat too much into areas that prefer to be hot. For this reason, a stronger decline in the east appears more likely, and a more limited heat wave is forecast. But given the European’s stubbornness, it’s hard to be too confident. There are heat risks in some key areas of the country next week.
Even if temperatures in the Corn Belt become milder next week and the heat wave lasts only a few days, the precipitation forecast will remain light. Systems moving from the top of the ridge across Canada could push the front south, leading to milder air later next week. This may be an area to watch out for thunderstorms and severe weather. But the likelihood of widespread precipitation will be very low. All models agree with this fact: Rainfall amounts are typically less than half an inch and fall in a couple of bands at best from the Northern Plains through the Midwest. If it weren’t for the very active last few weeks – and generally good soil moisture in these areas – even a shorter heatwave would be a major concern. Areas in the Central Plains and southwestern Corn Belt will likely be drier and hotter, which will be a poor combination for pollinating corn there over the next six to 10 days.
Instead, showers could continue from Texas to the Carolinas, limiting heat potential and keeping soils a little wetter for growing crops in those regions. The current forecast could be too warm if showers become more widespread.
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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.
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