Updated July 26, 2026 – 10:45 p.m.first publication at 17:45
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Labour’s internal campaign to oust Jacinta Allan as Victorian premier reached a critical stage on Sunday night after an extraordinary meeting of caucus conveners decided to oppose her leadership.
A meeting of organizers from across the party’s left and right factions was called to determine whether Allan had the faction support it needed to take the government to the state election on November 28.
Four sources familiar with the meeting said there was broad agreement that after nearly three years as prime minister, Allan’s days in the top job were numbered. It is less clear how the leadership issue will evolve.
A meeting of factional organizers on Sunday evening decided to remove Jacinta Allan as leader of the Victorian Labor Party. Michael Howard
One source said Age that on Sunday evening the Prime Minister was informed that she had lost the support of the Labor faction.
A defiant Allan, who spent Sunday evening at her Bendigo home with senior advisers, told supporters that no matter what caucus leaders decide, she will not resign.
Management maneuvers take place in the absence of the declared applicant.
Allan’s most likely replacement, Deputy Prime Minister Ben Carroll, has signaled to colleagues that while he would be a contender if the leadership becomes vacant, he would not use his numbers to unseat the premier.
Deputy Prime Minister Ben Carroll has been touted as Allan’s most likely replacement. Alex Koppel
The controversial leadership vote, coming just four months before the state elections, is paralyzing the government.
Under previously untested party rules, the new leader will be chosen by a closed vote and a vote of party members, with both given equal weight. The process can take up to six weeks.
In the event of a leadership leak, a deputy leader takes office to run the government. If Allan and Carroll become candidates for leadership positions, both will be removed from their day jobs and an interim leader will be appointed.
Some MPs, particularly those from the dominant left faction, are concerned that caucus organizers failed to sufficiently survey the views of parliamentarians in their groups ahead of the Sunday evening session.
Age has spoken to seven Victorian Labor Party sources who say they believe Allan will lose if her leadership reaches a vote of the party’s 69 MPs.
But one deputy said Age not every faction was represented at the Sunday evening meeting, and this downplayed its importance.
“The Prime Minister knows the numbers exactly,” they said.
“Some people don’t want to do the hard work. They want everything on the plate and I can tell you now that there is a faction behind the prime minister.”
As with the last round of leadership turmoil in June, the path to a coup is littered with assumptions that have yet to come to fruition.
Many sources from both factions agreed that Carroll, who sits on the right, would find it difficult to challenge Allan – despite some in her own left-wing faction wanting him to do so – after he publicly ruled out a challenge at a press conference last month.
Looking the prime minister in the eye and declaring that he would not challenge her for the leadership, Carroll told reporters: “I have a young daughter at home and I am very proud that she will grow up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to become a world-class prime minister and to be re-elected in her own right.”
Another option being considered is for a delegation of faction leaders to speak with Allan and ask her to step aside.
Two sources said they found it difficult to believe Allan would go down without a fight, but admitted it was possible she could be persuaded if it was clear she no longer had numbers in the meeting.
An Allan supporter, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak freely, said if Sunday evening’s meeting shows a majority of MPs want a change in leadership, the prime minister could face a no-confidence vote at the caucus meeting on Tuesday.
“It would be a very brave premiership to continue in the light of the unfortunate outcome,” they said.
Attorney-General Sonia Kilkenny, speaking earlier on Sunday, said management’s speculation was “idle gossip”.
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“She has my full support and this idle gossip is not helping Victorians,” she said. “It only hurts Victorians at a time when Victorians need us all to focus on them, and that’s exactly what Jacinta Allan and our Labor government, our team, are doing.”
A number of new policies have been leaked from the Prime Minister’s private office over the past week, suggesting Allan’s team is scrambling to find announcements that might reassure its colleagues.
Cabinet will on Monday consider a proposal to create a new agency within Victoria Police that would target organized crime and receive information from Australia’s top crime intelligence officers.
Domestically, the policy is seen as a way to ease pressure on the royal commission into corruption in Big Construction, linking the issue to other political issues such as an increase in firebombings in Melbourne and public concerns about youth crime rates.
Another policy has been published amending rate cap rules to allow councils to better recover costs needed to pay staff – a policy backed by the Australian Services Union but quickly seized upon by the opposition as an attack on the cost of living.
One MP said Allan had denied supporting her and, rather than step aside, would likely apply party rules on the spill, which would require a vote by Labor Party members if the caucus results were disputed.
But they also said the conspirators needed to “piss themselves or get off the potty.”
A senior Labor Party official said Allan’s leadership was doomed and she was now incredibly unpopular, despite being given time to engage with voters.
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“There is now an opportunity to hit the reset button, restore voter confidence and remind voters of the benefits of a strong Labor government.”
The latest Resolve Political Monitor gives Allan an attractiveness rating of minus 36, her lowest score on record.
Opposition leader Jess Wilson maintains her lead among preferred prime ministers, with 43 per cent of voters saying they want her to lead the state, compared with Allan’s 24 per cent.
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Chip Le Grand leads our state politics coverage team. He previously served as the newspaper’s chief reporter and is a journalist with 30 years of experience.Connect via email.