The Athletic is providing live coverage of the Portugal v Croatia 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage match.
Every statistical forecasting model worth its salt had Portugal among the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup ahead of the tournament.
A simple look at Roberto Martinez’s team would be enough to convince him that the individual talent at his disposal was among the best in any country, perhaps surpassed only by Didier Deschamps’ France.
Despite this quality and depth, Portugal struggled through to the knockout stages with two draws and a single win, finishing second in Group K and setting up a round of 16 meeting with Croatia. They still have a good chance of going far in the tournament, but there is a question that remains to be answered: are Portugal really… good?
Stylistically, Martinez wants his team to have possession, dominate the ball and quickly regain control when they lose it. Thanks to the technical qualities of the midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes can dominate any game on their own with the ball. How well they can match this, with the best team in the tournament not in possession, remains a matter of debate.
Portugal thrashed Uzbekistan 5-0 in the second round, but a single shot on target against DR Congo and a clean sheet against Colombia underscored their chances.
Disassembling low blocks can be difficult. Portugal joined Spain, England, the Netherlands and Belgium in dropping points during group games when playing against a tenacious defense that struggles to squeeze space.
With Vitinha at the center of midfield, Portugal’s centre-backs often spread out during the build-up – or the full-back pulls up to help form a back three – allowing Martinez’s team to push five players into the opposition backline and create maximum width to stretch the game out.
As shown above, this was an obvious method of attacking the DR Congo, but as the game progressed it became an infrequent occurrence. With the match played largely in front of a block of opponents, Portugal’s attacking threat became increasingly static.
The elephant in the room in the form of Cristiano Ronaldo is impossible to avoid here.
There were two well-taken goals against Uzbekistan, but the 41-year-old remained largely silent throughout the rest of the group games – despite his and his team-mates’ best intentions to stop the attack on him.
Ronaldo’s limited mobility has been used as a stick to defeat him, but this argument lacks perspective. According to FIFA, he walked 50 percent of the total distance he covered in this tournament, while Lionel Messi’s share was 62 percent.
Two percent of Ronaldo’s runs come from sprints. Messi? Just 0.9 percent.
Some of the tournament’s star players need teammates to soften their weaknesses, allowing them to make the most of their strengths. You only have to look at the last World Cup to see how Messi’s teammates physically assisted their star man, helping him work his magic en route to Argentina’s third World Cup victory.
Much has been made of the positions Ronaldo took in the first leg, often offside when DR Congo took the field. Some saw this as a negative, but it was a smart play from the centre-forward that kept the centre-backs out of sight and acted as a decoy to make room for his teammates elsewhere.
It was also a recognized tool for circumventing the offside trap, and it almost always worked. As shown below, Ronaldo is comfortably offside and unmarked, but a clever double move from Bruno Fernandes (centre) and Pedro Neto (left) put Neto behind the DR Congo defense ahead of his captain.
As he tries to cross the ball, the 41-year-old is now in play and gets ahead of the opposition defenders to attack the cross.
A similar situation occurred in the match with Uzbekistan, where Joao Neves releases Joao Cancelo on the right touchline – while Ronaldo’s square pass is only possible due to the initial offside position he occupied.
“When we have the ball, we need a strong personality and a clear vision of how to get into the opponent’s penalty area,” Martinez said ahead of Portugal’s match with Uzbekistan.
“We need a player who can create space and Cristiano is the best at that. The statistics back it up. He is an icon. These movements and the way he creates space ultimately makes him the final piece to complete our strategy.”
This tactic is only effective against a lower-ranked team who are expected to dominate possession, but could prove challenging for Portugal fans when Martinez’s side face stronger opposition.
However, these rotations were among the most effective methods of attack for Portugal. Stretching the backline laterally across the field was one thing, but it took more than that to ask questions vertically to create space at the back.
Ronaldo’s presence clearly still has an effect: his run towards the ball drew the DR Congo defense with him, giving Nuno Mendes the opportunity to run in behind. Martinez would welcome additional examples of the clip below.
Vitinha and Joao Neves work so well together at Paris Saint-Germain because they can dictate the pace of play while their attacking teammates rotate around them, making it impossible for opponents to track runners.
Ronaldo is clearly more economical in his running – he remains more static between the goalposts, meaning Portugal move less fluidly across the front line. When the attack becomes predictable, controlled possession can seem a little more outdated compared to the club football this midfield duo is used to.
This is not just a problem for Ronaldo, and simply replacing him with Gonzalo Ramos would be too simplistic a solution.
The question is different. Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix and Fernandes have incredible technical qualities when playing ahead of Vitiny and Joao Neves, but are their profiles too similar?
Portugal often use wide combinations with players who can maintain possession in a small space, but with so many players wanting the ball at their feet, these passes sometimes fail to test the opposition back line.
Shuffling the opposition to make room for a move to the far side is a viable method of attack, but this may then come at the expense of presence in the central box as Portugal lack runners outside the ball.
This athleticism to run from behind often comes from left-back Mendes or Neto on either flank, and Portugal looked most threatening against Uzbekistan when they moved the ball into the area for early attacking crosses.
It may not appeal to one or two Portuguese stars, but replacing the ball’s feet-based profile with Rafael Leao’s dribbling style could bring more attacking balance (with Neto on the opposite flank) with more purposeful running that could open up space elsewhere.
Defensively, Martinez can only point to one goal conceded in Portugal’s three group games, but there were warning signs in the World Cup opener when DR Congo broke free on the counter-attack.
Ronaldo’s lack of defensive contribution remains a moot point, but Martinez did come up with a way for his team to press high up the pitch at times, leaving Ronaldo in the middle to cover the goalkeeper and wide center back if the ball turned over.
When Portugal are caught in a structured block in their own half, they often drop Neto deeper to form a back five – a common tactical requirement in the modern game – to allow the back line to move.
Below are two examples of Portugal dropping deeper to form a 5-4-1 formation, although eagle-eyed viewers will notice that Ronaldo does not hit the shot on either occasion.
The biggest warning sign for Portugal came in their final, with Colombia having 24 shots on target, their highest total in a World Cup match.
Against a better team, Portugal were less able to prevent Colombia from breaking through the field, with the front three in defensive shape and Vitinha and Ruben Neves going one-on-one in the middle.
This was easily bypassed by a team with good possession as the space in the middle third was too large, allowing Colombia to switch play easily. They created a good chance to shoot on goal using the sequence below, getting the ball into the final third with ease.
With possession being put to a greater test by eventual opponents Croatia, Portugal’s defensive play will come under greater scrutiny. However, Martinez can view England’s clash with Croatia as the basis for success, with more opportunities to counter-press and rush forward to exploit the space at the back rather than break a stubborn low block.
An example of this can be seen in Ronaldo’s second goal against Uzbekistan, when Portugal wrapped six bodies around the ball as he ran away. Felix’s quick release finds Fernandes, who can move forward and pick out Ronaldo in front of him in transition.
Martinez is already faced with the challenge of maximizing the talents of Belgium’s golden generation. The political landscape surrounding Ronaldo’s inclusion is difficult to navigate, but the tactical issues run deeper than just one player.
Portugal know what it’s like to win a major international tournament after a slow start, winning Euro 2016 after three straight draws in the group stage.
Based on the evidence we’ve seen this summer, they need to step up their game again if they’re going to make it to the final stretch.