On Friday, wheat prices on the European futures market rose €11.25 to €216.25 a tonne for the September advance wheat contract, with the December contract trading at a premium of €9.25 at €223 a tonne.
Corn prices are also rising sharply in the futures market, fueled by rising wheat prices, as well as heat and projected volume losses in both old and new crop contracts. The November 2026 (new crop) contract was up €6.25 at €238.75 a tonne in continuing trading on Friday, and the previous August date was up €5 at €237.75 a tonne. This means that the new corn harvest (November) was still €21.5/t above the September 2026 wheat contract, despite the sharp rise in wheat prices.
In Europe, market participants also continue to pay attention to the abnormal heat, which primarily affected France and partly also Germany. While yields vary, wheat performance has been disappointing in some regions, prompting industry players to adjust their positions. Field work is progressing surprisingly quickly.
According to FranceAgriMer, 59% of France’s wheat harvest has already been harvested. The same agency provided additional stimulus to the market, as expected, cutting the exposure to good-to-outstanding corn stocks by 11 percentage points in one week. The figure is now 47%, well below the five-year average of 69%.
At the international level, tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region remain decisive for price movements. As Iran and the US find themselves in yet another confrontation that affects shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Russia has suspended passage through the Kerch Strait.
On Friday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also released its monthly report, including adjustments for European corn. Production estimates were lowered by 3.7 million tons to 53.8 million tons. This could push imports to 23.2 million tonnes, the highest level since the 2022/2023 marketing year. For wheat, attention has been focused on production performance in Russia and Ukraine; both figures were revised upward by 0.5 million tons, reaching 88.5 million tons and 24 million tons, respectively.